BROWNING, STEWART TOOK US FOR RIDE WITH QUAKE FORECAST

Consider this analogy: As Orson Welles held the world transfixed with a tale of invaders from outer space so Iben Browning made an earthquake seem imminent. Two different stories with the same ending: An unsuspecting public was snookered.

The only rumble we felt Sunday through Tuesday was from the media satellite trucks headed to and from New Madrid.

The real puzzle is how one man's "projection" snowballed into a national media event. No single circumstance was to blame; a combination of matches fueled this bonfire.

For one thing, the publicity on the quake prediction seemed to feed off itself. We did our best to take a responsible approach to covering the story - concentrating on preparation and plans. But not everyone took this approach. The local television station promoted Browning better than any publicity company - saving much of their "exclusive" interview for several weeks and then airing it nightly during a ratings period. It's no secret New Madrid is one of the most active faults, with 250 tremors from 1-3 magnitude each year. Publicizing each small tremor only heightened the hype. Several local radio talk programs were no better, especially on Dec. 3. These programs did more to hype the event than dispel the various quake precursor rumors.

We shoulder part of the blame too - for reporting Browning's prediction on the word of Dr. David Stewart alone without more serious investigation of both Browning and Stewart. Early on, we accepted Stewart's credentials without question. Later, our criticism of Stewart drew fire from people who said he was just trying to do his job.

But what job was that? As Browning's personal emissary? Weeks after Stewart told the local press he would no longer talk about the prediction, he could be seen and heard on CNN, Nightline, and other national and regional media - still maintaining to the end that Browning hadn't gotten a fair hearing from the scientific community.

Also to blame were the scientific experts for not coming out sooner and stronger to dispute Browning and Stewart. By the time the U.S. Geological Survey challenged Browning in November during a St. Louis press conference, Browning was already a "credible" source.

Another factor was the cancellation of classes. Schools faced a real Catch 22: hold classes for a few people and collect lower state funding, or cancel classes. The first cancellation touched off a domino effect. A 4.6 tremor in September also fueled the fires: It marked the first time many of us felt the earth move.

Stewart claimed repeatedly he was not endorsing Browning, only saying he deserved a fair hearing. Well, actions speak louder than words. The stories kept growing about Browning's past successes. The fact Browning had projected several disasters could be traced directly back to Stewart. Mind you, the U.S. Geological Survey could find no proof that Browning had correctly foretold anything.

Again and again it was Stewart who could be seen and heard defending Browning. He was the only scientist to lend him credibility. That association has adversely affected him, the Center for Earthquake Studies and the university.

All right. The projection did spur earthquake preparation like no other single event. But can this level of preparation be sustained? When do we throw out our bottled water and unpack our emergency clothing? And what about Stewart and the center staff. As they continue their "work," Stewart may find a cool reception not as "the boy who called wolf" but "the scientist who called quake."

Southeast Missouri and New Madrid found themselves as the main course in a national press feeding frenzy. But the focus of many of these reports was less serious and more standoffish amusement over the panic. Many of the clips and articles portrayed Southeast Missourians as country bumpkins frightened of their shadows, like the Illinois superintendent who was watching dogs and cats to decide whether to call off school. Where did they find these people, and what kind of impression has it left on the rest of the country? I'll tell you: they think we're silly.

As the predicted day loomed closer, Browning's daughter hedged the scientist's bets, stressing other areas of concern. Have you looked at land between the 30th to 60th latitudes on an atlas? His "quake zone" includes a big chunk of the Earth. The fact a quake was felt in the Soviet Union is bunk. A quake occurs around the world every three days on the average. Given that fact and such a wide "quake zone" even I could become a bonafide predictor. Give me my dart.

Dec. 3 has come and gone without incident. Perhaps the lesson of the day is that we learned something about earthquakes and about ourselves. Next time a flim-flam man comes to River City, we'll be a little wiser. We'll send him off quaking.