ARE THE SUPPOSEDLY `EPERT' PUNDITS AT WAR WITH REALITY?

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Publisher Peter Kann of The Wall Street Journal wrote a thought-provoking piece last week in which he remarked on the "Pundits' War with Reality." Kann listed the following falsehoods that gained currency during the last few months as pundits left, right and center announced their "expert" opinions. Each of the following "informed forecasts" proved wide of the mark, some glaringly so. How many have you heard some expert espouse since last August 2?

The U.S. began this war on January 15.

Israel would enter the war, spelling disaster for the anti-Iraq coalition.

The anti-Saddam coalition is a fragile house of cards, posingconstant diplomatic quandaries for Mr. Bush.

Mr. Bush's domestic support for going to war was thin, fragile, fraying.

"Peace" demonstrations, in front of the White House and in a few other cities, were the tip of an iceberg.

Saddam Hussein is an incalculably clever foe.

The "elite" Republican guard will fight to the death.

The giant oil slick, the greatest ecological disaster ever, would smother Saudi Arabia.

The war must be over by the Muslim holy days of Rammadan.

The air war was somehow too antiseptic, a "Nintendo war" in which the American public was prevented from experiencing the true horrors of war.

The air war was causing horrifying civilian casualties.

Military restrictions on the press are denying the American public its right to know what's going on.

Bombing would be ineffectual in forcing Saddam out of Kuwait, necessitating a bloody ground war with massive U.S. casualties.

A wave of terrorism, unleashed by Saddam, would strike Europe and the U.S.

Arab masses in the Middle East and wider Muslim world would rise in support of Saddam, threatening regimes allied with the U.S.

The U.S. public was overly optimistic, even dangerously euphoric, about how speedily and successfully the war would be concluded.

By bombing in or around Baghdad we might be targeting Saddam Hussein himself, thereby violating Executive Order 12333 banning political assassinations.

The handful of Democratic senators who broke anti-war ranks to support President Bush's authority to go to war would be in deep political doo-doo.

The U.S. is, or will be perceived to be, beating up on a poor Third World nation, thus alienating the Third World.

Soviet and Iraqi peace proposals pose deep dilemmas for President Bush.

Saddam will wind up winning by losing.

The U.S. will wind up losing by winning.

Pessimism pays.

Peter Kann, Wall Street Journal

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The pre-war prediction of Fred Barnes of The New Republic and "The McLaughlin Group", which Barnes made on that stimulating program, is looking better and better. Recall that before the war started, this column took note of Barnes's boldest-ever prediction about the political consequences of the Persian Gulf war. Short days before the air war began in mid-January, Barnes flatly predicted that no member of the House or Senate who voted against President Bush's authority to go to war would ever be elected President.

These past and potential future Presidential contenders who voted "NO" include such luminaries as Senators Sam Nunn (Georgia), George Mitchell (Maine), Robert Kerrey (Nebraska), Lloyd Bentsen (Texas), Bill Bradley (New Jersey) and Joe Biden (Delaware), and from the House, Richard Gephardt (Missouri).

Could any of these pass the Commander in Chief test that American voters apply to their candidates for the White House?

On the other hand, let's name two Democrats who do pass that very test, judging from their votes for the same resolution their fellow party members opposed so overwhelmingly:

Senators Albert Gore of Tennessee, and Charles Robb of Virginia. Both are Vietnam veterans and, in this episode, profiles in courage for their lonely stand.