A CHEER FOR TRADE: IS THERE MORE TO COME?

We are told that the "logjam" on international trade has been broken. The presidents and prime ministers of the G-7 countries have agreed to a wide range of tariff reductions on manufactured goods. Cautious good news if all the nations really mean it.

Remember that prior summits have resulted in "breakthroughs" on trade, only to have the expectations unfulfilled. Remember also that the bi-lateral talks between the U.S. and Japan are unresolved. Remember also that the troublesome service sector is unresolved.

For international markets to work effectively, barriers have to be reduced or eliminated at all levels of commerce in rich and poor nations alike. Free trade talk is cheap; free trade in practice is politically expensive.

It will defy history if the G-7 powers and the 107 other countries bargaining at Geneva in the so-called Uruguay Round of FATT substantially reduce trade barriers. History tells us that in quiescent times of fitful political instability, bold action is unlikely and the status quo usually prevails. Consider the cast of nations involved in the Tokyo summit.

Japan has become the front-and-center international trade villain. It feels badgered and bullied particularly by the United States. While the Japanese are going through their most traumatic political revolution in 40 years, they are unlikely to rid themselves very quickly of the pervasive business-bureaucratic grip on public policy formulation. Can a new government change the cultural attitudes and buying habits of generations and encourage a consumer spending spree focused heavily on imported goods?

Britain's influence in world affairs is marginal. By force of personality, Margaret Thatcher made her nation a bigger player in international decision-making than British strength warranted. John Major, by the weakness of his political position, has relegated Britain back to secondary status.

French trade policy is to agree to a few things in theory, but little in specifics. From the French perspective, any expanded world trade agreements would come at the expense of their farmers and their higher paid industrial workers, and are unwelcome.

Most dramatically, Germany isn't the confident, economic power-house of old. The costs of reunification and unlimited immigration have been staggering. Germany, both in the private and public sectors, is borrowed to the hilt. Its economy may shrink as much as 2 percent this year. Trade reform isn't uppermost on Germany's mind.

Finally, the United States. Bill Clinton, although down in the polls, at least has an assured additional 3 year tenure office. No other leader in Tokyo could claim as much. As he looked around the conference table, Clinton saw the ghosts of summits past. Kiichi Miyazawa of Japan, Helmut Kohl of Germany, Francois Mitterrand of France, Major of Britain. For them, the political shot clock has expired.

Clinton's daunting task will be to get the first-step G-7 agreements greatly broadened in Geneva. Miyazawa and Mitterrand will be replaced by fresh personalities beset with the same worries about the political impact free trade will have on their mercantilist societies. The ghosts will depart, but their haunting spirit lingers on.