WOOLLY WORM PREDICTION; AREA WINTER SHOULD BE PLEASANTLY MILD

Don't pack away the Bermuda shorts.

If the woolly worm's predictions for Southeast Missouri are correct, winter this year will be pleasantly mild, not wild and woolly as some winters have been.

If the woolly worm found ambling along the lawn of the old Thebes, Ill., courthouse this week is any indication, area residents can expect a light winter. That is because the woolly worm was a light brown.

The woolly worm is officially the woolly bear, a name applied to the caterpillar of any tiger moths of the family, Arctiidae.

Legend has it that if the woolly bears are all-black, the winters will be harsh and cold. If they have black bands around each end and brown in the middle, the early colonists noticed the winters were usually cold at first, mild in the middle and cold again toward the end.

The use of animals, insects and plants in predicting weather is part of folklore, based on observations that have been handed down from generation to generation. And the woolly worm has been looked upon as a weather prophet since colonial times.

Students at Fruitland's North Elementary School have watched the woolly worms over the past couple of years.

"We looked for woolly worms Thursday," said Martha Short, a teacher at North Elementary. "We found a lot of light brown woolly worms."

The students didn't collect any of the worms noticed this week. "We'll be doing that later this month," said Short.

Students let the worms go later in the fall.

When the caterpillars mature, they start looking for a place to hibernate during the winter months. They crawl into old logs, wooden siding of houses or bark on trees where they spin themselves into cocoons. It is during the months of September and early October that the woolly bears are most visible as they scurry across highways, sidewalks or playgrounds.

Woolly bears sleep through the winter and emerge in the spring as moths to begin the cycle all over again.

While many may scoff at the woolly bear's ability to foretell what the winter will be, there are just as many who put stock in what its colored bands have to say each fall.

For those who remain skeptical, consider this: Over the past five years woolly worms have correctly predicted weather patterns in Southeast Missouri.

One of those predictions was a mixed one, as the two-colored worms predicted a cool start and warm finish. That year, 1991, saw one of the warmest winters ever. After a cool start, the winter wound up as one of the warmest in nearly 50 years in Cape Girardeau.

Last fall the woollies had large brown or orange bands, and it also was a relatively mild one, with a very cool and wet spring.

During one five-year period, from 1948 through 1953, a former curator of the Department of Insects and Spiders, American Museum of Natural History, New York City, conducted his own study of the woolly worms.

Using from 40 to 70 caterpillars collected from Bear Mountain, N.Y., the average width of bands and segment were studied to predict the winters.

During the study, the woolly worms were right in predicting the four winters, but were wrong in predicting a colder winter the fifth year.

Short and her students at Fruitland also look to persimmons for weather predictions.

"You look at the persimmon tree seed," said Short. "You split open the seed. Inside there will be an ivory shape of a little spoon, knife or fork. These can be distinctly seen against the background color of the seed."

Old-timers say if the design is in the shape of a spoon, you will be shoveling snow during the winter, said Short. If it is knife-shaped, the winter will be cold and biting. But, if it is in the shape of a fork, it will be a loose, mild winter."