WINTER PREDICTIONS: WOOLLY WORMS SEE MILD SEASON AHEAD

Hang the Old Farmer's Almanac in the outhouse and tune out those newfangled, color-radar, weather screens.

Once again, the reliable old woolly worm has offered first predications on what to expect for winter 1998-1999.

Four of the mostly brown caterpillars, found recently in a farm field near Oak Ridge, reveal that the coming winter could be mild.

Editors of the Old Farmer's Almanac, a 200-year-plus publication, claim 80 percent accuracy in its annual weather forecasts, determined by a secret formula and modern scientific calculations based on solar activity.

Woolly-worm fanciers claim more than 70 percent accuracy with their winter forecasting wiles, based on coloration of the brown bands of the woolly bear caterpillar.

That is "scientific" vs. "unscientific" weather forecasting at its best.

Yet another not-so-scientific winter prediction, based on the first 12 days after Christmas, also has some good results predicting weather.

The "official" woolly-worm predication will be announced in a couple of weeks from Banner Elk, N.C., where as many as 15,000 woolly-worm enthusiasts gather for the annual Woolly Worn Festival, an event its sponsors say is held for "fame, fortune and weather forecasting."

Not just any old woolly worm is used in the annual winter-forecasting ceremony at Banner Elk. Woolly worms must first engage in a race along a piece of string.

Officials then use the race champion woolly worm for the official winter predictions. Officials count each of the 13 segments of the woolly worm, a segment for each week of winter, using the black segments at the front and rear of the caterpillar as the start and end of winter.

The more black segments, the worse the winter, and vice versa, with the harshest weeks of winter occurring during the darker-segment weeks.

In the case of the Oak Ridge woolly worms, winter could get off to a cold start because segment No. 1 is pretty dark, but the brown segments start and continue for more than a half-dozen segments, indicating milder weather. Then, following another little wintry burst, winter should go out like a lamb.

Although the Farmer's Almanac and the woolly worm are acclaimed as the top two weather predictors in the United States, there are many weather forecasting indicators involving animals, insects, plants and legends.

Most scientists discount the folklore of the woolly-bear predictions as just that, folklore. They say the woolly bears and other so-called weather indicators -- persimmon seeds, spider webs, bushy squirrels and hornets building their nests close to the ground -- are simply myths.

Scientists also discount some forecasting based on plants -- heavy blackberry blooms; thick, sweet-potato skins; more onion layers; and thicker shells on hickory nuts.

However, one entomologist (a person who deals with zoology and insects) says there could be a link between winter severity and the brown band of the woolly-bear caterpillar. The band could say something about a heavy winter, or an early spring, but what it's not telling, is that these bands relate to the weather of the previous year.

Most scientists discount all of the folklore predictions. They particularly scoff at the woolly bear's ability to foretell what the winter will be. But consider this: Over the past seven years woolly worms have correctly predicted weather patterns in Southeast Missouri.