WINTER OPUTLOOK WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL

The weather outlook for the winter of 1993-94 in the Cape Girardeau area is a mixed bag of good news and bad news, according to the 90-day (December-February) weather outlook released this week by the National Weather Service.

For purposes of records and statistics, the weather service and climatologists divide the seasons into equal 90-day periods. Thus, fall began Sept. 1 and ended Nov. 30. Winter began Dec. 1 and will end Feb. 28, 1994.

The bad news is the wetter-than-normal weather pattern that started in September is expected to continue through February in an area that includes southern Missouri and Illinois. Precipitation in that area is expected to average much above normal during the period, according to the weather service.

The Corps of Engineers and levee districts do not welcome such forecasts as repairs are made on broken levees in anticipation of more high water.

The good news is that most of the precipitation will probably be in the form of rain, and not snow or ice, since temperatures during the three-month period are expected to average above normal in the Southeast Missouri-Southern Illinois region.

The weather service said the December weather outlook for the Cape Girardeau area is the same as the 90-day outlook: wetter and warmer than normal.

Autumn 1993 was the third coolest and wettest on record in Cape Girardeau, according to Al Robertson, climatologist and professor of geosciences at Southeast Missouri State University.

Robertson said the average temperature at the airport for the 90-day period, Sept. 1-Nov. 30, was 56.2 degrees, compared to the 45-year long-term average of 58.8 degrees.

He added that the coolest fall in Cape Girardeau was in 1976, with an average temperature of 52.7 degrees. The warmest on record was in 1946, with an average of 62.2 degrees.

Precipitation at the airport during the same 90-day period amounted to 19.03 inches, compared to the 75-year, long-term average of 10.81 inches. Much of the excess precipitation this past fall came in September, with a record-setting 10.23 inches of rain measured that month at the airport.

The unusually cool fall weather was also responsible for one of the earliest snowfalls on record in Cape Girardeau. On Oct. 29, 2.1 inches of snow fell at the airport. Another six-tenths of an inch fell the next day, with a trace of snow on Halloween. Traces of snow were also reported in early and late November.

The wettest fall on record in Cape Girardeau was in 1925, with 22.47 inches. The driest fall ever in Cape was in 1953, when only 3.07 inches fell during the three-month period. Robertson noted a major drought affected much of the Middle Mississippi River Valley states and the Great Plains States that year.

Robertson said November's average temperature of 44.8 degrees was only slightly below (1.9 degrees) the long term average of 46.7 degrees. A new record low of 18 degrees was set on Nov. 7, breaking the old record of 26 degrees that was set on that date in 1976.

Precipitation last month totaled 5.45 inches, up 1.66 inches from the long-term average of 3.79 inches. Most of the precipitation (3.92 inches) occurred during a five-day period between Nov. 12-17.

For the year to date Nov. 30, precipitation at the airport totalled 50.13 inches, up 9.75 inches from the 75-year, long-term average of 41.34 inches. The average annual precipitation at the airport is 45.03 inches.

The long-term average temperature for December is 37.1 degrees. The record high for December is 76 degrees, set on Dec. 2, 1982. The record low is minus 11 degrees, set on Dec. 22, 1989.

Normal precipitation at the airport during December is 3.69 inches.

Last year, the Cape Girardeau area experienced its first Christmas Day snowfall in recent memory, when 1.1 inches of snow fell on Christmas morning.