WINTER IS WARMEST IN 47 YEARS; FEBRUARY SECOND WARMEST IN LIKE NUMBER OF YEARS

This winter has been the warmest in 47 years, according to Dr. Al Robertson, climatologist and professor of earth science at Southeast Missouri State University in Cape Girardeau.

Also, last month was the second warmest February in Cape Girardeau in 47 years, Robertson said.

Robertson said the average temperature from Dec. 1 through Feb. 29 was 41.2 degrees, 5.2 degrees warmer than the 47-year average.

He said the second warmest winter on record was in 1949-50, with an average temperature of 40.9 degrees.

In contrast, Robertson said the coldest winter on record at Cape Girardeau occurred in 1977-78, when the average temperature was 26.9 degrees. The second coldest winter here was in 1978-79, when the average temperature was 28.4 degrees.

Precipitation during the 90-day period totaled 10.49 inches, compared to the long-term average of 10.43 inches. Only two inches of snow fell during the three-month period, which reflected the unusually warm winter. Average snowfall for the period is 11.5 inches, Robertson said.

The measurable snow that did fall came in January, with 1.9 inches on Jan. 12, and .01 of an inch the following day. There was a trace of snow in February.

Robertson, and other climatologists say the mild winter weather was due in large part to El Nino, the name for a weather phenomenon that involves a change in the circulation and temperature of the waters of the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of South America.

Robertson said El Nino's warming of the ocean water raised the air temperature in the atmosphere above the ocean, causing major shifts in the polar and sub-tropical jet streams that steer weather-making storm centers and fair-weather high pressure centers across the United States.

He said the position of the jet stream during the winter months determines if the very cold polar air is held back over the northern United States and Canada, or allowed to sweep southward, deep into the heart of the United States.

This winter, El Nino forced the polar jet to stay mainly along the U.S.-Canadian border, which held the cold, arctic air along the border states.

Robertson refuting "global warming theorists" said the mild winter temperatures don't indicate any long-term warming trend.

"We've had warm and cold weather cycles as far back as weather records go," he said. "What we're seeing now is a cyclical thing. Global warming has nothing to do with it."

Robertson said natural events such as El Nino and the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillipines last year have a major impact on global weather.

Also, for the second consecutive month the average monthly temperature was well above the long-term average.

Robertson said the February average temperature was 45.1 degrees, up 7.7 degrees from the long-term average of 37.4 degrees. January's average was 37.4 degrees, up 4.7 degrees from the long-term average.

"February 1992 was the second warmest here in 47 years," he said. "The warmest February on record at Cape Girardeau during the same time span was in 1954, when the temperature averaged 46.7 degrees.

The coldest February on record in Cape Girardeau during the same period was in 1978, when the average temperature was 23.9 degrees.

Robertson said the only cold spell last month was Feb. 8 and 9, when the high remained below 40 degrees.

"Since Feb. 9, the overnight low at the airport hasn't dropped below 32 degrees," he added. "That's very unusual for February."

From Feb. 1-10, the average temperature was 38.7 degrees, 5 degrees above the long-term norm; from Feb. 11-20, the average was 47.1 degrees, nearly nine degrees above average; and from Feb. 21-29, the average was 50 degrees, 9.2 degrees above average.

"The bottom line is there was very little cold air in the area last month," Robertson said. "The jet stream held the very cold arctic air well to the north of us, and we were under the influence of mild air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean much of the month."

Precipitation during February totaled 2.98 inches, or .14 of an inch above the long-term average of 2.84 inches.

"Most of the rain came during the period from Feb. 11-14," said Robertson. "Except for Feb. 23, when the airport got .81 of an inch of rain, the last half of the month was dry," he said.

Precipitation for the year now totals 5.35 inches, which is below the long-term average of 6.36 inches.

"Although we are now an inch below normal, the soil has lots of moisture in it, and we're entering the traditional wet months of March, April and May," Robertson said.

The average temperature for March is 46.8 degrees, and average precipitation is 4.41 inches. Last year was a warm 50.9 degrees and a relatively dry 3.17 inches of precipitation.

Very little change in the weather pattern is expected during the next 30 days. The National Weather Service service says temperatures and precipitation will average at, or above normal this month. The 90-day outlook calls for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation in April and May.