What does Assange arrest mean in respect to U.S?

WASHINGTON -- Julian Assange's arrest Thursday in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London opens the next chapter in the saga of the WikiLeaks founder: an expected extradition fight over a pending criminal prosecution in the United States.

It's also likely to trigger a debate over press freedom and call attention to unresolved questions about Assange's role in the release of stolen Democratic emails leading up to the 2016 presidential election, part of special counsel Robert Mueller's recently concluded investigation into ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.

U.S. charges

Assange, for now at least, faces a single count of computer intrusion conspiracy.

He's accused of conspiring in 2010 with Chelsea Manning, then a U.S. Army intelligence analyst who leaked troves of classified material to WikiLeaks, to crack a password to give her higher-level access to classified computer networks.

Prosecutors say Assange and Manning tried to conceal Manning's role as a source by deleting chat logs and removing usernames from sensitive shared records. They used a special folder to transmit classified and national defense information, according to the indictment. Assange ultimately requested more information related to the password, telling Manning, while he had tried to crack it, he "had no luck so far."

What's next?

Assange is expected to fight extradition to the U.S., a process possibly stretching out for years.

He has a top-notch legal team, many devoted supporters and the legal issues in the U.S. case are likely to be uniquely complex.

Assuming he is eventually brought to the U.S., Assange would face charges in the Eastern District of Virginia, just outside Washington. The office has considerable experience in national security prosecutions involving accused terrorists and spies and other high-matters, such as the case against former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort.

Justice Department officials could easily supplement their single-count indictment with a new one with more serious charges. Manning was jailed last month after she refused to testify before a grand jury in Virginia, suggesting prosecutors' work related to Assange is not done.

Ecuador's president, Lenin Moreno, said he had secured a guarantee from the United Kingdom that Assange would not be extradited to a country where he could face a death penalty. That's likely a reassurance to Assange's supporters, but the charge he currently faces carries just a five-year maximum penalty.

The Espionage Act can carry the death penalty for people who give or sell national defense information to foreign nations, but that charge was not brought against Assange in the current indictment. Though some of the language in the indictment, including the references to national defense information, mimic the Espionage Act, there's no allegation Assange disclosed American secrets to a foreign power with the goal of harming the U.S.

Mueller connection

On its face, the charges have nothing to do with Mueller's probe.

The indictment was brought not by Mueller and his team but rather by prosecutors in Virginia and the Justice Department's national security division.

There is no allegation in the indictment of any involvement in Russian election interference, coordination with Russian hackers or interactions with Trump campaign associates.

That's striking since Assange and WikiLeaks have surfaced, albeit obliquely and not by name, in multiple criminal cases brought by Mueller. WikiLeaks was the organization publishing Democratic emails stolen by Russian intelligence officers. And Roger Stone, a Trump confidant under indictment, repeatedly boasted of connections to WikiLeaks and of having advance knowledge of the organization's publication plans.

It is unclear what information, if any, Assange might be willing to offer about how WikiLeaks came to possess the stolen emails.