Weather service: Mild winter likely for Southeast Missouri

~ Even with a above-normal temperatures, one or two significant winter storms aren't out of the question.

Southeast Missouri can probably expect another mild winter this year, reducing the chances of a white Christmas but providing a bit of relief from high heating costs.

A winter climate forecast released last week by the National Weather Service predicted more than a 50 percent chance for a warmer-than-usual winter in the area for December, January and February.

Last week, NOAA released its projections on whether temperatures would be colder or warmer than normal in December, January and February.

The climate predictions are based on past winter trends and the lack of significant patterns in the Pacific Ocean like El Nino and La Nina, said NWS meteorologist Robin Smith, based in Paducah, Ky.

Ten of the last 15 Missouri winters have averaged above-normal temperatures.

With a mild winter, Smith said the area can expect to see temperatures on average 3 to 4 degrees above normal.

Warmer weather means that most winter precipitation will fall in the form of rain instead of snow, said Smith. Cape Girardeau's average yearly snowfall is around 11 inches.

But Smith did say that even with a mild winter one or two significant snowfalls aren't out of the question. Last year's mild winter produced a major winter storm the week of Christmas in Southeast Missouri, dumping 11 inches of snow in Cape Girardeau.

Milder temperatures could have a twofold benefit for farmers. Livestock farmers could see lower operating costs, said Gerald Bryan, agronomist with the University of Missouri Extension in Cape Girardeau.

Warmer temperatures mean that livestock have to consume less feed to survive the weather, Bryan said. Another benefit is that less energy can spent on thawing water troughs and that more calves can be bred, as cattle reproduce more actively in warmer weather.

Crop farmers could also see a benefit, as rain can recharge areas affected by the dry summer.

Milder temperatures could help ease the burden of winter heating bills, as well. But Keri McCrorey, community services director with the East Missouri Action Agency, said it might not be enough for her agency's clients.

The EMAA provides government assistance to low-income individuals and families that need help paying their heating bills.

"They're struggling now to pay the skyrocketing energy costs, so I don't think having a mild winter is going to make any difference in their ability to pay," McCrorey said.

Last year at this time, 3,500 people in the EMAA's eight-county area had applied for assistance. This year 5,100 have already applied.

McCrorey said the assistance programs might be depleted of funds locally by Jan.1, instead of the usual Feb. 1. On average, she said, area residents are seeing a 30 percent increase in energy costs over last year.

Mike Cleary, spokesman for AmerenUE, said the mild winter locally could have a varying impact on heating costs.

Last year's milder-than-normal winter locally didn't have much affect on natural gas prices, he said. Natural gas prices are part of a national market, so if another area of the country experiences a harsh winter, demand could go up, pushing prices higher.

This year the average increase in price for AmerenUE's natural gas customers in Southeast Missouri counties of Cape Girardeau, Scott and Stoddard will be $37.80 per month over last year. Customers in Bollinger County and Advance, Mo., will pay $24.13 more.

Cleary said that increase comes from an increase in the wholesale price of the gas, not from AmerenUE mark-ups.

msanders@semissourian.com

335-6611, extension 182