Weather experts: River's rise not like 2011 flood

Update

On Sunday morning the National Weather Service downgraded the expected flood crest to 42 feet.

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The towboat Katherine Berry passes beneath the Bill Emerson Memorial Bridge on Saturday evening in Cape Girardeau. The river is forecast to reach 43.5 feet at Cape Girardeau on Thursday, the highest it's been since the 2011 flood.

High water levels on the Mississippi River expected in Cape Girardeau later this week may land in the record books, but officials and forecasters are questioning how severe flooding will be.

Forecasts indicate the river will reach near 43.5 feet at Cape Girardeau on Thursday, which would be the highest the water has been since the historic flooding hit the region in 2011.

On Thursday and Friday, parts of northern and eastern Missouri already were fighting water that had inundated several communities from a combination of snow melt runoff and rain from recent thunderstorms.

Gov. Jay Nixon on Friday declared a state of emergency in response to the flooding, activating the Missouri National Guard, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers set up an emergency operations center in St. Louis to send sandbags and other flood relief supplies.

While the water is expected to move downstream in the next few days, local officials, the corps and the National Weather Service said Southeast Missouri shouldn't expect a flood event comparable to 2011 -- at least not yet.

A system of thunderstorms is expected to move through Tuesday into Wednesday, but the forecast does not indicate the region will receive enough rain to push the river much higher than the anticipated crest level, said Kevin Smith, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky.

The rise is especially dramatic considering earlier this year low water threatened to shut down commercial traffic.

Memphis corps' spokesman Jim Pogue said the corps is planning an operation for Monday known as a Phase 1 flood fight at the Diversion Channel south of Cape Girardeau. Phase 1, according to Pogue, entails the corps' periodically monitoring the levee system.

A Phase 2 flood fight, where the levees are monitored 24 hours per day, will be activated if the river level reaches 42 feet at the channel, Pogue said.

River levels seen in Cape Girardeau and elsewhere in 2011 similar to the level predicted for Thursday evoked massive disaster response efforts, but only because water levels on the Ohio River and many tributaries also were at record-setting levels. The Ohio River at Cairo, Ill., is forecast to crest at 48 feet by Friday morning, according to the National Weather Service, but the floodgate on the Ohio side of the city doesn't close until the river reaches 50 feet.

Numerous river flood warnings were issued for several counties in the region Thursday and Friday. Included in the warning, which remains in effect, are Cape Girardeau, Perry and Scott counties in Missouri and Alexander, Jackson and Union counties in Illinois.

Larry Dowdy, chief engineer of the Little River Drainage District in Southeast Missouri, does not anticipate widespread flooding as a result of the high river level, but he said detention basins will likely fill as intended.

Floodgates in downtown Cape Girardeau, including the gate that used to cross North Main Street and now protects the land around the Isle Casino Cape Girardeau, closed Friday as the water rose to 33.5 feet by noon. Flood stage is 32 feet.

Pogue said he expects backwater flooding into the St. John's Levee Basin to the south once the higher water reaches that area, but does not generally expect any flooding or a serious threat to the levee in the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway. The corps breached the levee at Birds Point and flooded a 130,000 acre area in Mississippi and New Madrid counties in May 2011. The levee has since been mostly restored.

"If you have a significant rain, there is always a chance of flooding, but for people who are protected by the federal levee system, we don't expect to see any impacts there," Pogue said.

On April 27, 2011, the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau reached 44 feet, and the Ohio River at Cairo was expected to hit 60.5 feet within days.

Smith said a lack of continuous rain this year should minimize the risk that the river rises higher, but that the weather service will be keeping a close eye on levels since water is backing up into tributaries in Southern Illinois and flooding is occurring in parts of Missouri.

Rainfall in Cape Girardeau, by comparison to two years ago, has been light.

"Locally, we've had enough spaces between weather systems not to have that affect the situation, too," he said.

Cape Girardeau received more than 17 inches of rain in a 12-day period from mid to late April in 2011. So far this month there has been 2.9 inches of measurable rain.

Mike Petersen, spokesman for the St. Louis district of the corps, on Friday said a flood-response team is on standby for Southeast Missouri in case the situation changes.

"We've already staged all the supplies we will need for a flood fight," he said.

Smith said he won't be surprised to see flood warnings issued along the Mississippi River further to the south of Scott County in the coming days.

Thanks to buyouts after massive flooding in the 1990s, the high water in the Cape Girardeau area shouldn't affect homes or businesses, but will flood thousands of farm acres at a time when many farmers are planting or just planted crops.

eragan@semissourian.com

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Cape Girardeau, MO