ALBANY, Ga. -- Drought, a cooler-than-expected summer and the natural rhythms of nut-bearing trees will likely lead to a smaller pecan crop this year in Georgia and across the South.

"Pecans like it hot," said Darrell Sparks, a University of Georgia pecan specialist. "Last year was relatively cool. You have to have a lot of heat to get a return bloom" the following year.

Pecan trees usually produce a big crop one year and fewer nuts the next, while the trees revitalize. Last season was a bountiful one for Southern farmers, so a drop-off is expected.

Georgia, which usually leads the nation in pecans, produced 95 million pounds last year, on the heels of an 80 million pound crop in 2000. The total from all states last year was 338.6 million pounds, 61 percent more than the year before.

The pecan crop also isn't getting enough water. Much of the growing area, which runs from the Carolinas to New Mexico, is in the grip of a drought that began in 1998.

About half of Georgia's pecan groves are irrigated, but even those may not get enough water, which is critical for the formation of fully developed kernels, Sparks said.

"The size of the nut is a function of water," Sparks said. "It elongates in June and expands in July. If you're short on water, you get a small nut and that reduces production."

The next two weeks will be critical for filling out the kernels, Sparks said.

"If we get good rain in September, then those small nuts will be high quality," he said. "If we don't, the quality will be off."

The harvest begins in October.

Consumers may not even notice this year's smaller crop because of supplies in cold storage that are carried over from the other years.

Pecan demand is usually strongest at Thanksgiving and Christmas since they are popular ingredients in holiday candies and cakes.

Larry Willson, general manager of Willson Farming Co. and president of the National Pecan Shellers Association, consumers should find an adequate supply for their nutty holiday creations this fall.