Weather according to sun spots, achy knees and groundhogs

When it comes to the weather, most people these days put their faith in radar systems, computers and mathematical probabilities. But some still believe a groundhog can predict spring, woolly bear caterpillars can foretell winter, and a direct correlation exists between foggy days in August and snowy days in winter.

When it snowed in Southeast Missouri the week before Christmas, some said the farmers almanac predicted it.

Well, maybe.

It depends on which farmers almanac was consulted. About a half dozen farmers almanacs are available. All of them are basically the same. They offer recipes, phases of the moon, planting guides, articles of interest to farmers and others in rural areas -- and weather forecasts in varying detail. Of the four checked for this report, three predicted snow for the area that week in general terms. A fourth, the 2005 "Almanac for Farmers and City Folk," predicted above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for that week for this area. In fact, that almanac is predicting above-normal temperatures in this area through March.

The Farmers Almanac with Benjamin Franklin's photo on it nailed its prediction for December: "Missouri will be somewhat colder and will see snow." But it missed the mark in January: "January 10-12 will introduce a cold snap that will bring snows to areas from Missouri all the way south to eastern Texas. Precipitation for the month will be above normal and there will be a slight warming trend on Jan. 17, but this will be followed by a renewal of snow over much of the region late in the month."

"The Old Farmers Almanac" predicted a similar December and January. "The Farmers and Planters Almanac" predicted heavy snow and bitter cold Christmas week for this area. It also predicted a snow accumulation of 10 to 20 inches Jan. 8 to 11.

The National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky., using computer models, observation and equations, predicts weather only as far as seven days ahead, said a spokesman. Conditions beyond seven days are not weather but climate, said Carmeyia Gillis, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency. The difference, she said, is that weather forecasts predict specific day-to-day changes. The agency's "U.S. Seasonal Outlook" -- the climate -- attempts to predict, using probabilities, if the weather is expected to trend drier/wetter or colder/hotter than normal.

Mark Twain had a take on that: "Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get."

In the 1940s and 1950s, weather forecasters relied on surface observations collected at six-hour intervals to make a forecast for 24 to 36 hours. They weren't accurate.

Over the last 50 years, radar, satellite and other data-gathering methods have been combined with computers to produce global model forecasts that can predict weather 16 days in advance. NOAA predicted more than 30 inches of snow in 1993 along the Appalachian Mountains five days in advance.In 2001 it predicted a nor'easter along the East Coast seven days in advance. But the storm system took 24 hours longer to develop and produced the heaviest snow 120 miles further northeast than the models had earlier predicted.

NOAA weather forecasters claim 90 percent accuracy in one-day forecasts.

Influence of sun spots

"The Old Farmers Almanac," which predicts weather at least a year in advance to accommodate publication schedules, claims its weather forecasts come from a secret formula devised in 1792 by Robert B. Thomas, who founded that almanac. Thomas believed the weather on earth was influenced by sun spots. The almanac predicts weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity. The almanac claims its forecast success is 80 percent.

"The Almanac for Farmers and City Folk" says it bases its forecasts on 30-year averages and includes data about sun spot activity and the position of the moon in relation to the earth's equator.

Even with all the electronic gadgetry available to predict weather, some forecasters find that the weather often has its own agenda. Fast moving fronts can slow down or dissipate altogether. When that happens, people who believe in old-fashioned methods of forecasting weather weigh in with their scorn for modern predictions. The methods handed down from one generation to the next seem to have great staying power.

Some people swear that their aching joints and sore feet can predict the next rainfall.

Some folkloric weather -- or climate -- indicators include a prediction of a bad winter if there is a heavy crop of acorns or lots of berries in the fall.

Another legend says a hog with a stick in its mouth also is supposed to be a sign of bad weather.

Other indicators, based on superstition or coincidence, include: an itchy nose or a sneezing cat predicts rain. Rain is also foretold if cows are lying around in the pasture. Spiders abandon their webs and fireflies fly low when rain is coming.

If swallows are flying high, then the weather is clearing. Blackbirds arriving means an early spring. A cat washing its face predicts good weather; so does an open ant hole. If an owl hoots on the west side of a mountain, good weather is coming.

So whom can you believe? It doesn't take an Einstein to figure out that predicting weather is iffy. As Einstein himself once said about the chance of getting it right, "One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible."

lredeffer@semissourian.com

335-6611, extension 160