This year's debates could prove pivotal to race outcome

By Tom Raum ~ The Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- Because Sen. John Kerry is the challenger and lags President Bush in most national polls, he seems to have the most to gain from a strong performance in the upcoming fall debates. Some Democrats see the face-offs as the last chance for a Kerry breakout.

But presidential debates present pitfalls as well as opportunities.

Unscripted moments and gaffes can backfire on incumbent and challenger alike: Al Gore's heavy sighs in 2000, the first President Bush's checking of his watch in 1992, Michael Dukakis' passionless answer to a question about the hypothetical rape and murder of his wife in 1988, President Ford's 13-year-early liberation of Poland from Soviet domination in 1976.

Barring any major developments in Iraq or on the terrorism or economic fronts, the debates could be even more important than usual this year because of their potential impact on remaining voters who still count themselves as undecided and because of the closeness of the race.

In a poll by the Pew Research Center, 29 percent of those surveyed said the debates would matter in deciding how they would vote. Some 68 percent said their minds were already made up.

Those undecided voters could make a huge difference.

This year's debates "in totality are more important than the two conventions," said Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg.

The candidates' differences are also more clearly pronounced this year than usual on major issues that divide the country: Iraq, job losses, rising health care costs and the rising federal deficit.

"It will be one of the few times when George Bush will have to defend his record," said Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart, a former press secretary to President Clinton. "He's proved very deft at slipping and sliding when it comes to his own record."

Four debates proposed

Negotiations were continuing into the weekend between the Bush and Kerry camps over terms of the debates. The first one recommended by the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates is set for Sept. 30 at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Fla. The panel has recommended two additional presidential debates -- Oct. 8 in St. Louis and Oct. 13 in Tempe, Ariz. -- and an Oct. 5 vice presidential debate in Cleveland.

The Kerry campaign has agreed to all four; the Bush campaign has been noncommittal. President Clinton in 1996 agreed to only two debates in his race against Republican Bob Dole, and many expect Bush to follow the same route -- most likely sidestepping the proposed second debate at Washington University in St. Louis, with its proposed town-hall format in which undecided voters pose questions.

Wayne Fields, a professor at Washington University who specializes in presidential rhetoric, said a format with undecided voters could be tougher on Bush, particularly in defending his Iraq policy.

It's one thing for a moderator to ask about rising U.S. casualties, "but if the question comes from somebody who has a son or daughter, husband or wife in Iraq, it personalizes the question for the viewing audience," he said.