Talent tops Carnahan in straw poll at fair

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- Republican Jim Talent was the overwhelming choice for U.S. Senate among those participating in a straw poll held at the Missouri State Fair.

Talent, a former congressman from St. Louis County, claimed 59 percent of the 8,651 ballots cast, compared to 38 percent for incumbent U.S. Sen. Jean Carnahan, a Rolla Democrat. Three percent of poll participants said they were undecided.

The poll was conducted by the Missouri Farm Bureau, which has held similar polls at the state fair in Sedalia on major statewide races in every election year since 1980.

The bureau claims previous polls have been 100 percent accurate in picking the preferred candidates of rural voters and 77 percent accurate in forecasting actual winners.

Talent spokesman Rich Chrismer called the results encouraging but said the campaign isn't reading much into it.

"We are very pleased by the result of the poll, but there is only one poll that counts and that's on Nov. 5," Chrismer said.

Carnahan spokesman Dan Leistikow said the state fair poll isn't scientific, and recent scientific polls show Carnahan 11 points in the lead.

"It is an enjoyable thing to participate in at the state fair, but at the end of the day, voters are going to look at Sen. Carnahan's strong record of accomplishments," he said.

While everyone attending the fair was invited to participate in the straw poll, the bureau said those casting ballots tended to be rural residents.

In the group's straw poll two years ago for the same U.S. Senate seat, then-incumbent John Ashcroft, a Republican, garnered 58 percent of the vote compared to 36 percent for Gov. Mel Carnahan, a Democrat. While Ashcroft claimed outstate Missouri on Election Day, Carnahan, who died in a plane crash three weeks before the election, narrowly won the seat with strong urban support.

Jean Carnahan, the governor's widow, was appointed to serve in her husband's place.