Study- State standardized tests predict college performance

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- Missouri's standardized tests hold high school students to a high standard and are a good predictor of a student's chances for success in college, according to a study by a University of Missouri professor.

Michael Podgursky, who chairs the Economics Department at the Columbia campus, analyzed high school students' performances on the Missouri Assessment Program tests for the state Department of Elementary and Secondary Education.

Among his conclusions: Results on the MAP tests are generally as reliable as scores on the ACT college entrance exam in predicting college performance.

"We found that kids who did better on either of those exams had higher grade-point averages, were more likely to take courses, were more likely to pass the courses, and were more likely to be enrolled in college," Podgursky said in a telephone interview.

State education commissioner Kent King said the study affirms that Missouri is testing the right concepts to ensure students can handle college-level work.

The study also found that Missouri sets a "relatively high bar" in its definition of proficient performance on the tests.

"The current MAP performance level cutoffs are ambitious," Podgursky said in a written summary he prepared for the state board of education.

He said the research was important because panels of educators and others set the performance standards for the Missouri tests, but the study ties those measuring sticks to external gauges of student success.

Some legislators have worried that Missouri's generally above-grade-level expectation for "proficient" scores on the MAP tests are too high compared to other states' grading practices.

Bills moving through the legislature would bring Missouri's performance standards in line with, but no higher than, those of the National Assessment of Educational Progress, which typically sets a grade-level standard for proficiency.

Podgursky's report seems to back up lawmakers' concerns.

For example, he found that 10th-graders who score "proficient" on Missouri's standardized math test had a median composite ACT score of 27 out of a possible 36. That puts them in the 90th percentile of all ACT test-takers.

Among Missouri's 11th graders, those who achieved "proficient" scores on the communication arts test had a median ACT score of 25, in the 82nd percentile. Those figures don't even include students who scored "advanced," the highest level of the Missouri test.

Put in perspective, an ACT score of 24 -- combined with completion of certain high school courses -- automatically qualifies a student for admission to the University of Missouri.

The federal No Child Left Behind law requires that all students be proficient in reading and math by 2014. But each state defines "proficient" for itself, and Missouri's definition is "quite high," Podgursky said.

King acknowledged that not all students will hit the "proficient" benchmark.

"No, we're not going to have every kid on the 90th percentile on the ACT. That's not going to happen," he said. "With No Child Left Behind hanging out there, I have no doubt that people will look at the proficiency language somewhat differently."

As for performance in college, the study found a direct correlation between a high score on the MAP test and a strong record as a college freshman.

He found that of those who performed at the lowest of five levels on the MAP scale in math, just 10 percent went on to take the ACT and enroll in a Missouri two- or four-year college in the fall of 2001. That group completed its first semester with an average 10.8 credit hours and an average 2.06 grade-point average.

But students who scored in the highest level on the MAP test completed an average 14.2 credit hours and had an average grade-point average of 3.38 for the first semester in college.

Podgursky said he plans to continue his research, looking at both that group's second semester of college and at another batch of high school graduates to get a more complete picture.