Some hedging on evidence against Iraq

WASHINGTON -- In making the case for war, the Bush administration has delivered a bill of particulars against Saddam Hussein that includes al-Qaida terrorist links yet to be demonstrated and weapons he may or may not have within reach.

Publicly, President Bush's officials are touting reports that al-Qaida operatives have found refuge in Baghdad and that Iraq once helped them develop chemical weapons. Privately, government intelligence sources are hedging on that subject, suggesting there might be less than meets the eye.

Did Iraq really kick out U.N. weapons inspectors in 1998, as Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has said? No. "We made the decision to evacuate," says Charles Duelfer, who was deputy chairman of the U.N. inspection agency at the time.

And might Iraq really have nuclear weapons "fairly soon," as Vice President Dick Cheney alleges? That depends on the definition of soon, Cheney acknowledges, and no one outside Iraq really knows how close Baghdad is to that point.

"I haven't heard any real howlers," Duelfer said of the Bush administration's assertions about Iraq. But some appear to have been made with more passion than proof.

Bush's case for war probably would be a slam-dunk with Americans and an easier sell to the world if a firm relationship were established between the terrorist group that mounted the Sept. 11 attacks and the Iraqi leader he wants ousted.

It would be helped, too, by showing that Iraq's biological, chemical and nuclear weapons programs are sufficiently advanced to pose a direct threat to the United States if placed in the hands of al-Qaida or any agents out to harm America.

But Rumsfeld says all the United States can do is present the risks as best they can be determined, not nail them down beyond a reasonable doubt. "Our goal is not to go into a court of law and try to prove something to somebody," he said.

Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's national security adviser, took the case on Iraqi-al-Qaida links several strides forward this week by alleging that al-Qaida operatives have had a direct relationship with the Iraqi government.

"There clearly are contacts between al-Qaida and Iraq that can be documented," she said.

She did not document them.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated the evidence for linkage is tenuous, based on sources of varying reliability.

The subject of Iraqi weapons is also murkier than has been presented. The U.N. chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, said last month he had no proof that Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction.

Any such accounting necessarily depends on what inspectors found before they left four years ago and spotty intelligence since.

Bush warned the United Nations that Saddam could have nuclear weapons within a year of acquiring fissionable material. Cheney said: "On the nuclear question, many of us are convinced that Saddam will acquire such weapons fairly soon."

The CIA's own forecasts have not conveyed that much alarm.

"We believe that Iraq has probably continued at least low-level theoretical R&D (research and development) associated with its nuclear program," it said in its latest report to Congress, in January.

Duelfer doesn't make much of the mischaracterization of his inspection team's pullout in December 1998, noting that while Iraq did not eject the inspectors, it had stopped dealing with them and then would not let them back in.

And the Bush administration appears to be "sort of in the ballpark" with its estimates on when Iraq might possess nuclear weapons, he said.

As part of its case that Iraq is a threat that must be dealt with, and quickly:

--The administration characterizes Saddam as a supporter of terrorism generally. "Iraq's ties to terrorist networks are long-standing," Rumsfeld told Congress.

Those ties are complex. One group the U.S. government brands as a terrorist outfit has been favored not only by Iraq but by many members of the U.S. Congress. That group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, advocates the violent overthrow of the religious government of Iran. It recently held a news conference two blocks from the White House.

In the region, Syria and Iran are widely considered to be more active sponsors of terrorism than Iraq is.

--The administration alleges al-Qaida operatives, including senior figures, have been in Iraq.

But U.S. intelligence sources have said al-Qaida members are believed to be simply moving through Iraq en route to their home countries. They have not offered evidence these sojourners are putting down roots in Iraq, setting up camps or making contact with Saddam's government.

Most are believed to be in areas outside the reach of the Iraqi government.

Some are thought to be ensconced with anti-Saddam Kurds in parts of northern Iraq cut off from his control by the continual U.S. and British air strikes in the no-flight zone. But at least one midlevel to high-level al-Qaida figure may be in Baghdad, according to the latest intelligence.

--The administration, as evidence of Saddam's venality, has repeatedly noted he used chemical weapons against Iraqi Kurds in the late 1980s -- an event that barely elicited a response from Washington at the time.

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On the Net

White House background papers on Iraq:

www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/09/20020912.html