SEMO's Yaskewich on 'impressive' US GDP report

Count economist David Yaskewich of Southeast Missouri State University among those who found the Thursday, Oct. 26, third quarter estimated report on America's gross domestic product "impressive and surprising."

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimate said July through September GDP rose at an annualized rate of 4.9%, better than the 4.3% predicted by a consensus of economists.

The estimate, in addition to being higher than forecast, is also markedly better than the roughly 2% rises seen in the first and second quarters of 2023.

According to a BEA news release, "the increase reflects increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending and residential fixed investment."

Yaskewich, who has been on SEMO's faculty for more than 11 years and is chairman of SEMO's Accounting, Economics and Finance Department, said the recently released data show consumer spending is "pretty strong."

Yaskewich said he does not expect this GDP spike to continue in the final three months of 2023 or beyond.

"I think a lot of analysts — and I put myself in this category — don't expect a 4% or higher rate of GDP growth to continue in the next coming quarters," he said, adding, "the toll of interest rates remaining high for longer (periods) will start to eat away or pinch at consumers and businesses in terms of (future) spending."

Joseph Gamble, deputy director of White House National Economic Council, said the current numbers show inflation is cooling.

"I think the bottom line here is we're seeing an economy that is growing strong, that is growing from the middle out and the bottom up, not the top down," Gamble said.