SEMO professor discusses the Russia-Ukraine standoff

David Cameron, who teaches a course on the history of the Soviet Union at Southeast Missouri State University and who has visited Russia, said Thursday he does not expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to take decisive action against its sovereign neighbor.

"I think Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine," said Cameron, a professor in SEMO's History and Anthropology Department.

At presstime, the Russia-Ukraine border crisis seemed to ratchet up as Russia expelled the second most senior U.S. diplomat in Moscow -- an action a State Department official called an "escalatory" move.

President Joe Biden said this week he believes an invasion of Ukraine could happen "within the next several days."

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told the United Nations Russia "is planning to manufacture" a justification for an attack and "has not withdrawn troops," despite claims to the contrary by Moscow.

"I don't think Russians want Ukraine. There are high levels of corruption in Ukraine and economically it's not in the best shape. There are concerns about ethnic Russians living in Ukraine -- and Ukrainians and Russians have strong historic ties and have languages and cultures that are very similar," Cameron said.

Cameron, who has taught at Southeast for a quarter century, said a thorny issue for Russia is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Ukraine's national constitution, amended in 2019, set forth the eastern European nation's desire to join NATO.

"Russia doesn't want NATO troops there, whom they perceive as hostile Western forces. Ukraine is literally next door, but I don't think Russia wants to absorb or annex Ukraine because it's probably more trouble than it's worth," he said, adding Ukraine -- a former Soviet republic -- has the second largest land mass in all of Europe, just behind Russia.

"As I recall, (former Soviet President Mikhail) Gorbachev received a verbal assurance that former USSR satellite states would not be brought into NATO and NATO would not be pushed further east against Russia's borders when the Soviet Union collapsed. Why this was not put into an official treaty, I couldn't tell you. Within 10 years of the USSR's collapse, several former Soviet satellites were brought in. Russia feels it was lied to," Cameron said.

"Whether or not one agrees with the Russians, that's how they see it."

Of the 30 current nations of NATO's alliance, three ex-Soviet republics currently hold membership: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

"I don't understand the obsession by American policymakers with Russia, which at best, is a regional power. China is far more of a strategic competitor to the United States and I think has far more ambitious goals in east Asia, the Pacific, than Russia does," Cameron said.