Ryan indictment makes Illinois GOP worry about '04 races

SPRINGFIELD, Ill. -- Illinois Republicans had hoped to spend 2004 moving forward and rebuilding after a disastrous 2002 election. Now, thanks to George Ryan, they could spend it rehashing the past.

Ryan's indictment on 22 federal corruption charges puts the spotlight on a period most Republicans would like to forget. It also threatens to put GOP candidates in the tough position of trying to run for office while newspapers carry endless headlines about corruption under a Republican official.

While Democrats have mostly resisted any temptation to gloat over the situation, they acknowledge hopes of using it to their advantage next year.

"I think Democrats will be quite aggressive in pushing the envelope on this," said Barb Brown, vice chairman of the Illinois Democratic Party's central committee.

Most Republican officials offer an upbeat assessment of the situation, but there are exceptions.

"There's going to be some negative effect. Look at what happened after Watergate and Nixon," said U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson, R-Urbana.

Strategists from both parties see little chance of the scandal becoming a major issue in any particular race.

The scandal might give a small boost to candidates who can portray themselves as political outsiders, strategists say. It also could hamper Republican voter-registration efforts and reduce turnout in general -- the last thing Republicans want after last year's election, when they lost the governor's mansion, the legislature and all but one statewide race.

But many officials hope the party can escape any fallout from the long-expected indictment. They argue that voters understand Ryan, not Republicans in general, is responsible for any corruption in his office.

"It doesn't mean anything for the Republican Party in Illinois. The party distanced itself from George Ryan a long time ago," said U.S. Rep. Donald Manzullo, R-Egan.

Ryan, a GOP leader for 30 years, left office in January. Throughout his single term as governor, prosecutors racked up conviction after conviction in Operation Safe Road, the federal investigation of bribery during Ryan's tenure as secretary of state.

Fifty-nine people and his campaign committee have so far been convicted of crimes ranging from issuing drivers licenses in exchange for bribes to using the office and its employees for political work.

Ryan was charged last week with a decade of corruption involving millions of dollars in state contracts as well as tax fraud, lying to federal agents and skimming cash out of his own campaign fund.

Investigators are also looking into the possibility that Lee Daniels, the former House Republican leader and chairman of the state party, used state employees for illegal political work. If any charges emerge from that probe -- and several Republicans said they assume that will happen -- the issue of corruption among GOP officials will gain new life.

The Ryan scandal was widely seen as contributing to the Democratic rout in last year's election. Many Republicans argue voters expressed their anger in 2002 and won't punish Republican candidates again in 2004. They point out that some veteran GOP leaders -- such as Daniels and former Senate President James "Pate" Philip -- have stepped aside and the new leaders have backed stronger ethics laws.

In fact, some GOP leaders try to argue that top Democrats have stronger ties to Ryan than Republicans do. Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President Emil Jones have all had long relationships with him.

They also point out that Democrats have had many scandals of their own over the years and federal investigators have been asking questions about Madigan in the last couple of years.

Other Republicans, however, say the party should be doing more to express outrage over Ryan.

"Unfortunately, Republican leadership in Illinois has failed to disavow George Ryan. Why that is, I don't know," said Patrick O'Malley, a former state senator who ran for governor last year and strongly criticized Ryan. "It isn't just Republicans. Democrats have been cuddling up and hugging George Ryan for years. This man deserved to be shunned, not embraced."

The response to Ryan's indictment was relatively muted in both parties.

Jones issued a statement calling Ryan his friend and praising his "enormous courage." House Minority Leader Tom Cross, R-Oswego, said Ryan "had a hard time saying no to people. I think he had some lousy friends."

State GOP chairwoman Judy Baar Topinka talked little about Ryan and instead stressed that the party "remains committed to the future ... in preparations for the crucial 2004 election."

That crucial election includes the presidential race.

George Bush, hampered by having the GOP governor embroiled in scandal, lost Illinois badly in 2000. Republicans hope that as an incumbent, Bush might be able to win here next year. Experts say the latest developments should have little direct effect on the presidential race in Illinois, but a dispirited GOP would complicate Bush's efforts.

Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate hope the scandal also weighs down their Republican opponents, even if it does not become a direct issue.

"I think the Republican Party will be suffering from something of a cloud," said Barack Obama, a state senator from Chicago who is seeking the Democratic nomination. "It will be a constant reminder."