Reformers thinking 'pink' as Iranian elections near

TEHRAN, Iran -- Under banners and balloons praising the Islamic Revolution, crowds streamed onto the streets Wednesday to celebrate a death: the end of Iran's Western-backed monarchy 25 years ago.

In another part of Tehran -- away from the speeches and patriotic songs -- a student activist waged a quiet counterattack on the system that succeeded the Shah.

He worked the phones and faxes to support the boycott of Feb. 20 parliamentary elections that liberals consider hijacked by Iran's ruling theocracy.

The dissident also dreams of someday joining an even bigger protest. He calls it a "pink" -- or bloodless -- revolution: applying the same tactics of mass resistance and clear goals that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini used to claim control of Iran in 1979.

"I don't like what has happened afterward," said Roozbeh Riazi, a leader of the Office for Fostering Unity, Iran's biggest reformist student movement. "But you could say his revolution was, let's say, very artistic."

Could something like that happen again? A growing array of believers -- from think-tank analysts to veterans of Iran's political scuffles -- say next week's elections may offer a defining moment for the country.

It could, they say, finally clarify and energize the so-called reform movement that started with the election of President Mohammad Khatami in 1997 and his calls for "Islamic democracy."

"This boycott is the beginning of the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran," said Qasem Sholeh Sadi, a former lawmaker who wrote a stunning open letter in 2002 to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei complaining about a lack of political openness. "The boycott is the start of social disobedience."

For years, Iranian reformists have been unable to find a unifying theme. Some pressed for more social freedoms. Others sought a greater voice in political affairs or expanded human rights. Underlying it all are differences over how strictly Islam should be interpreted.

But the anger over the elections could sharpen the focus straight to the top _ to the almost unlimited power of the ruling clerics.

Wednesday's celebrations marked the Feb. 11, 1979, resignation of the last Shah's prime minister, the culmination of an uprising that led to an Islamic government so strict that it initially banned all dancing, all foreign music except classical orchestra and all foreign movies that showed women.

In recent years, the conservatives allowed the social "red lines" to drift. They tolerated things such as satellite dishes, dating and music from Iranian-American rockers in Los Angeles. But the hard-line power base never cracked.

This time, the boycott movement is directly challenging one of the pillars of the establishment: the appointed Guardian Council. The 12-cleric group, which vets candidates for high public office, rejected more than 3,000 reformists from the elections.

Liberal lawmakers countered with sit-ins, mass resignations and once-unthinkable denunciations of the theocracy. The council later lifted the ban on about 1,100 of the candidates, but reformists were not satisfied and called for a boycott. Among those blackballed by the council: Khatami's younger brother and deputy speaker of the parliament, Mohammad Reza Khatami.

"The hard-liners never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity," said Ehsan Ahrari, an international affairs commentator based in Norfolk, Va. "We might be witnessing the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic." The boycott bandwagon picked up steam Wednesday, a day before the official campaign period opened. A small reformist group, Solidarity, pledged its backing. A human rights group that includes Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi offered indirect support by calling the elections "unconstitutional." A widespread boycott will likely return control of the 290-seat parliament to conservatives, who were buried in a reformist landslide four years ago. It may also signal an end for many reformists trying to work within the system. Their next outlet could be the streets, some say.

"We may witness clashes and conflicts ... It could turn into a social crisis," said activist Issa Sahakhiz.

President Khatami has not made it clear whether he will join the boycott, but he used the Islamic Revolution ceremonies to take a sharp jab at the system.

"Elections are a symbol of democracy if they are performed correctly," Khatami said in a speech before thousands marking the anniversary. "If this is restricted, it's a threat to the nation and the system. This threat is difficult to reverse." But Iran has been here before.

There have been steady predictions about the end of the regime since the first major student-led unrest in 1999. Each time, the protests fizzled. The common wisdom is that Iranians _ even the most disenchanted _ do not have the stomach for another attempt at all-out revolt.

"We don't have to fight to win. We can have a quiet revolution," suggested Reza Delbari, a former student leader at Amir Kabir University. "We will win because we are greater in numbers and greater in spirit." But many ask: Who will lead them? Even Iranian activists say they are desperate for a strong figure to emerge from the boycott movement in the way that former Russian President Boris Yeltsin spearheaded the backlash against Kremlin hard-liners.

"The reformers do not have a Yelstin," said Ted Carpenter, an international affairs analyst at the Cato Institute in Washington.

There also are questions whether the boycott drive will continue to poison reformist participation in politics at a critical period. Khatami's second and final presidential term expires next year and no clear political heir has emerged.

"Time is on the side of reformers," said Carpenter. "But it may be a very, very long process."