Radical plans, risks in policy of Brazil's leader Bolsonaro

SAO PAULO -- Brazil's President-elect Jair Bolsonaro has often expressed admiration for Donald Trump and appears poised to follow the U.S. president in a radical overhaul of his nation's foreign policy -- a move experts warn could ultimately isolate and hurt Brazil.

Bolsonaro, who takes office Jan. 1, has promised to pull Latin America's largest nation out of the Paris climate accord, join the handful of countries moving their embassies in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and take a hard line against President Nicolas Maduro in neighboring Venezuela.

The former army captain, who gained notoriety as a congressman for violence-laden language and offensive comments, has also frequently bashed China, Brazil's largest foreign investor.

The broad brushes of his plans have diplomats, political analysts and former government officials warning such moves could isolate the regional powerhouse instead of opening new markets, which Bolsonaro has said he wants to do by enacting widespread privatization of state industries.

"If Bolsonaro does what he says, Brazil will quickly become a pariah in the global community," said Rubens Ricupero, a former finance and environment minister. "Brazil has 50,000 problems to solve. He wants to give us problems we don't have in exchange for nothing."

A deeply polarizing figure at home, Bolsonaro has also ruffled feathers abroad. He called refugees fleeing to Europe "human waste," raising eyebrows in African and Middle Eastern countries and irritated China by visiting Taiwan, which Beijing considers to be a breakaway province.

And, like Trump, he has also said Brazil would scrap or try to renegotiate trade treaties, including the South American common market Mercosur.

Besides Bolsonaro's aggressive statements, analysts don't know exactly how he will operate. He has not said who he might name as foreign minister, and aside from his hyperbolic campaign rhetoric, his official platform was heavy on generalities but light on actual policy.

"The structure of the Foreign Ministry needs to be at the service of values that were always associated with the Brazilian people," it reads. "The other front is to foster foreign trade with countries that can add economic and technologic value to Brazil."

As a backbench congressman with a lackluster record over 27 years -- only two of his proposals ever made it into law -- Bolsonaro often asserted Brazil's foreign policy was driven by the "leftist ideology of the Workers' Party", which governed from 2003 to 2016. He promised to remove political bias from his international platform by "not dealing with dictatorships," an apparent reference to leftist leaders such as Maduro and Cuban President Raul Castro.

Leaving the Paris Agreement is the potential decision most closely watched. Brazil agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. For that to happen, it needs to increase biofuels as a part of its energy infrastructure and sharply reduce deforestation.

Similar to Trump, who pulled the U.S. out of the accord, Bolsonaro has said it's a bad deal for Brazil, home to the lion's share of the Amazon rainforest. In September, the then candidate said the agreement put "Brazil's sovereignty at stake" because to meet emissions and deforestation goals it would not be able to develop millions of acres of Amazon territory.

Days before Sunday's election, Bolsonaro back-peddled slightly, saying he would not pull the country out if Brazil's sovereignty was maintained -- which could be interpreted in many ways.

Leaving the agreement would trigger widespread international condemnation and could also have financial consequences, including lost foreign investment and the blocking of a trade agreement Brazil is negotiating with the European Union.

Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Fundacao Getulio Vargas university in Sao Paulo, says Bolsonaro's decisions will reverberate in a way they don't necessarily for a leader like Trump.

"Picture German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is a voice for moderation in the world. She has to meet Trump because the U.S. is a big partner," he said. "Why would she meet Bolsonaro, a man who could cause her trouble simply for the things he has already said? Adding troubles will only make it worse."

Bolsonaro will also be starting his administration amid friction with China, which has invested billions of dollars in energy, infrastructure and oil projects in Brazil. During the campaign, he complained "the Chinese are not buying in Brazil. They are buying Brazil itself."

In February, Bolsonaro, then a presidential candidate, joined a group of Brazilian lawmakers in a visit to Taiwan to meet local business and political leaders.

Soon after, Chinese President Xi Jingping's administration sent Bolsonaro a letter saying the tour caused "possible turbulence in the strategic partnership between Brazil and China."

Charles Tang, chairman of the Brazil-China chamber of commerce in Rio de Janeiro, said he believes Bolsonaro will moderate his positions once in office and the president-elect's attempts to forge closer ties to the Trump administration should not harm relations with China.

But Tang also warned China could retaliate if the rhetoric is not softened. For example, Brazil is set to host a summit next year of the so-called BRICS nations, the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

"Mr. Xi could decide not to come if he doesn't feel welcome," Tang said.