Race in GOP-friendly Missouri could determine Senate control

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- The clamor for change fueling Republican Donald Trump's presidential campaign may help a Democrat upset a powerful GOP senator in red-state Missouri on Election Day.

And with just a handful of competitive races around the country, the outcome in Missouri could help determine control of the Senate.

The contest between Missouri's secretary of state, Democrat Jason Kander, and Sen. Roy Blunt did not start high on either party's list of competitive Senate races in a state Trump likely will win.

But Kander, a 35-year-old veteran, has proven to be a smart and aggressive campaigner, challenging Blunt's attempts to brand him a liberal by running an ad in which he assembles an AR-15 rifle blindfolded and describes his combat service.

Kander also has sought to exploit the outsider mood that's propelled Trump to the fore, criticizing the 66-year-old Blunt as a Washington insider who is part of a failed system.

Jason Kander speaks Aug. 13 at the Cape Girardeau County Democratic Central Committee's banquet in Cape Girardeau.Fred Lynch

"Really, Donald Trump's entire message is that people like Sen. Blunt are the problem," Kander said before a recent rally in Kansas City where Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren appeared on his behalf.

"Washington's broken, and we're not going to change Washington until we change the people we send there," Kander said, "and here in Missouri, folks recognize that, and they're looking for a new generation of leadership."

Missouri is one of three GOP-friendly states, along with North Carolina and Indiana, that have emerged as battlegrounds as Democrats fight to gain a Senate majority. Democrats need to pick up five seats to accomplish that, or four if they hang onto control of the White House because the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.

Trump's slide in the polls has sparked fears among Republicans he could cost them majorities in the Senate and even the House.

Yet operatives on both sides say the top Senate races remain close, and so far, GOP candidates have not cratered in the polls as a result of Trump's problems.

Blunt counters Kander's attacks by tying the Democrat to Hillary Clinton, who is unpopular in the state, and painting him as too liberal. Blunt's ads describe the "Clinton-Kander agenda," and they hit Kander for supporting President Barack Obama's health-care law and policies on immigration and taxes.

An ad released Saturday in support of Blunt's campaign goes further, portraying Clinton and Kander as identical on issues such as liberal Supreme Court justices. The ad by the Senate Leadership Fund acknowledges Clinton likely will be elected and argues: "One Hillary in Washington would be bad enough. Reject Jason Kander."

The strategy of arguing in favor of GOP congressional candidates as a check against a President Clinton may become widespread if Trump's loss appears inevitable.

"This is really an important time. You look at how much is at stake," Blunt, who supports Trump, said at a rally in O'Fallon, Missouri. "We're going to live with this for a long time."

Blunt served seven terms in the House before his election to the Senate in 2010, and he's a member of the Senate GOP leadership. Yet he seemed to be caught flat-footed in a election year in which Missouri voters nominated a Republican candidate for governor who's a young outsider with little political experience.

Blunt's sagging poll numbers have forced GOP campaign committees to start spending millions to bail him out, to the annoyance of some Republicans. Blunt now is talking as if he's the underdog.

"It is not easy in our state," Blunt said. "We're in a fight. It's one we can win, but nobody needs to take anything for granted here."

Republicans have tried to insulate their Senate candidates from disruptions at the top of the ticket, running races focused on local issues and trying to avoid getting drawn into the controversy of the day with Trump.

But as Trump's poll numbers worsen with the election just over two weeks away, the limits of that strategy may start to show.

Democrats have a financial advantage going into the stretch and intend to use it in part by running more ads that tie GOP incumbents and candidates to Trump.

As Clinton pulls away from Trump nationally, that frees up more money for Democratic candidates in the top Senate races: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada. Republicans essentially have given up on incumbents in Illinois and Wisconsin.

Most concerning to Republicans is Trump's rhetoric about the election being "rigged."

"If his supporters actually think the election is 'rigged,' then you have to wonder if they will think it's worth coming out to vote," said Brian Walsh, a GOP consultant. "And that could have real consequences down ballot because we need everyone on the GOP side to vote."