Quake experts: Area on its own

~One scientist said there's a 25 percent chance of a magnitude-6 earthquake in the next 50 years.

ST. LOUIS -- The swath of land from north of St. Louis down to Marked Tree, Ark., is roughly the size of Texas, much of it rural and all of it vulnerable to earthquakes.

Speakers Thursday at the New Madrid Earthquake Conference in St. Louis had a tough message for most of the 11 million people who call this area home: You're on your own.

"With all of these people scattered throughout the region, it will be very difficult for federal or even state government to respond quickly," said Jim Wilkinson, executive director of the Central United States Earthquake Center.

"What rural communities have to be telling themselves is 'we've got to take a stand and do something for ourselves.'"

More than 200 people were at the event sponsored by the federal Delta Regional Authority to learn how to take that stand. They were largely elected officials, public safety officers and government employees. The event continues today.

Jamie Burger, 2nd District commissioner for Scott County, said the message hit home.

"We are on are own, we really are," said Burger of the rural communities in his county. "Because if we have a major disaster, we're probably going to have to be self-supportive for three days. I don't just mean me for myself and you for yourself; we're going to have to lean on each other as a community."

Burger is also one of 13 voting members for the Regional Homeland Security Oversight Committee. The group, which represents 13 Southern Missouri counties, votes on how to spend certain federal dollars for disaster mitigation. On Nov. 23, committee members will meet to make a recommendation on how to best spend a grant of just over $1 million.

Burger believes about $520,000 should go toward providing a 30-foot mobile command trailer for each of the 13 counties. These trailers would have water, food, flashlights, water purification tablets, radios and other survival necessities essential in the event of an earthquake.

In a disaster like an earthquake or the tornado that struck Crosstown, Mo., in September, "you could show up with this trailer to give people food and water for a few days," Burger said. "It's very minimal, but it's a start. Right now we can't take care of the first person."

The big earthquake that gave the seismic zone its sleeping giant reputation occurred in 1811. That was before the invention of measuring devices, but most scientists now estimate the quake had a magnitude of between 7.5 and 8.0.

Accounts from that time indicate the quake caused the Mississippi River to flow backward, made church bells ring as far away as Boston and permanently changed the landscape, creating bodies of water like Reelfoot Lake in Tennessee.

The effect on what was then the frontier was devastating. Today, the toll would be worse. An earthquake of that magnitude would cost $70 billion in property damage and thousands upon thousands of fatalities.

But will it happen again? Yes, said scientists at the event, though maybe not in the lifetime of anyone living today.

Dr. Buddy Schweig of the U.S. Geological Survey, who has published more than 35 articles on the New Madrid Fault, laid out the probabilities:

* A 25 percent likelihood of a magnitude-6 earthquake in the next 50 years.

* A 10 percent likelihood of a magnitude-7 earthquake in the next 50 years.

"It is a low-probability, high-impact event," Schweig said. "But what I like to tell people is that low-probability events happen all the time all around the world."

Schweig said the New Madrid zone is at particular risk because the area's geology is a good conductor for seismic waves.

Cape Girardeau fire chief Rick Ennis and Lt. Jack Wimp of the Cape Girardeau Police Department attended the conference and said the city is serious about being prepared for a major earthquake.

Ennis said the fire station under construction on North Sprigg Street will have a control center in its basement that will be the center of operations in the event of a disaster. From that fortified center emergency officials can organize and dispatch their resources and call other agencies for help if needed.

Ennis said he was unsure whether current police or fire department buildings could withstand a seismic event.

Wimp said that no matter what contingency plans are in place, unknowns remain.

"Is the highway cut in half? Are there large, gaping holes? Are there homes that are destroyed?" he asked. "We're going to be doing as much as we can and using all our resources and calling additional people in, but without knowing, it's kind of a fly by the seat of your pants until we know what we can and cannot do."

Ennis agreed, saying preparedness is the key. "The biggest service we can do now is try to tell people they need to be prepared to take care of themselves and their neighbors for those first few days because they may have to stand on their own for a while," he said.

Ennis said a week's worth of food and water, a transistor radio, warm clothing and baby formula, if needed, are a good baseline for a basement kit.

However, probably only a small percentage of Cape Girardeau homes have such kits, he said.

tgreaney@semissourian.com

335-6611, extension 245