PROFESSOR: MILITARY GAINS BY U.S. WON'T SOLVE REGION'S WOES

CAPE GIRARDEAU -- A former professor of Middle East history said Thursday that a U.S. military victory in the Persian Gulf war likely will do little to ease centuries-old political and economic power struggles in the region.

Dr. George Ketcham, who retired from Southeast Missouri State University last year after 31 years in the history department, said hostilities likely will remain after the current war is over.

A new Middle East, with curious alliances between western and Arab nations, might be as contentious as ever.

"I think it's going to be a different Middle East," Ketcham said. "Assuming the war is carried to a victorious end, there's going to have to be a strengthening of Saudi Arabia, while Iraq's strength is lessened.

"We want to see (Iraqi President Saddam) Hussein taken out, but we don't want to completely destroy the balance of power in the Middle East because you still have (President Hafez) Assad sitting in Syria."

Ketcham said Syria will have no love for the new U.S.-backed Saudi and Kuwaiti alliance. He said conflict in the Middle East can be attributed to a continuing struggle for power among various countries.

"Major Arab military powers left in the Middle East after this is over will be Syria and Egypt," he said. "Egypt will probably be a stronger military power than Syria, but Egypt will suffer some stigma from the Arab world for helping us."

Ketcham said it's difficult to predict how the seemingly precarious alliance between the U.S. and Arab states will work out after the war with America's traditional Middle East allies Jordan and Israel.

"I think Israel will feel uncomfortable as the situation evolves because they'll see us moving closer to ties with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries," he said.

"Also, Jordan, which was a very strong ally before things broke over there, has got so many Palestinians that King Hussein may find it very difficult to deal with the United States in the future."

Ketcham said the very nature of the tiny, oil-rich nation of Kuwait makes it a tempting target for neighboring countries' aggression.

"The Saudis are going to have to worry, if Iraq is removed completely, will Iran return as a threat to their oil fields?" Ketcham asked. "That's a very tempting area. There's no question it will tempt Kuwait's neighbors."

Regardless of the rocky ties between the various gulf nations, Ketcham said the apparent strong U.S. military showing likely will have some stabilizing effect on the region.

"The Arab people have hated the U.S. in all of this, but you have a situation where power, and the respect for power, plays a very great role," he said. "While there won't be a love for the U.S., it will be held in a greater awe and sense of respect.

"Certainly, the Saudis and gulf states are going to feel reassured that they can deal safely with the U.S. that we aren't a paper tiger."

Ketcham said that although the U.S. appears to have avoided the "Palestinian question" in the gulf, the issue of establishing a Palestinian homeland will need to be dealt with eventually.

"I think the U.S. eventually will have to face the Palestinian question," he said. "I don't think there's any question there's been an injustice to the Palestinian people."

But Ketcham called (Saddam) Hussein's attempts to bring the Palestinian question into the Persian Gulf crises hypocritical.

"In all the struggles that have gone on since 1948 when Israel was established, Egypt, Syria and Jordan have all struggled on behalf of the Palestinian question, while Iraq basically has been silent," he said. "I have no doubt Hussein is anti-Israel, but that's not why he invaded Kuwait."

Ketcham said he's been amazed at the "remarkable speed" at which the U.S. apparently has gained air superiority over the Iraqi armed forces. He said his greatest concern is with a possible ground attack, where U.S. causalities could be high.

"I really hope we do not try to move ground forces into Iraq," Ketcham said. "If we started to go into Iraq instead of just trying to clear Kuwait, we could run into problems fanatical resistance from the civilian population as well as the military."

Ketcham said that historically Iraqi soldiers have a reputation as courageous fighters.

"If you read Arab history, Arab troops have performed with tremendous courage," he said. "They have literally thrown themselves into battle."

He said Iraq's battles in 1907 with the French in Morocco are a good example of the tenacity of Iraqi troops.

"When the French were moving into Morocco, they came down with their muzzle loaders and rushed French machine guns," Ketcham said. "I have no doubt, with proper motivation, they'll exhibit tremendous courage, but their courage has often been self-destructive."

Ketcham said he thought the allied forces against Iraq have done remarkable well, not only in battle, but in the diplomatic war that prefaced it.

"I don't know what else President Bush could have done," he said. "We have vital interests in the Middle East, and not just oil.

"I don't think there's any question that Saddam was a threat to the entire Middle East. No other country was able to react like we did.

"I think (Bush) did a remarkable job of bringing together a coalition. I think it's been a splendid example of foreign policy. You can't help but be tremendously proud of the armed forces."