PRODUCE: QUANTITY AND PRICES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY

ST. LOUIS Fears that a critical shortage of fresh produce might develop later this month because of a whitefly infestation in California and Arizona were discounted this week by a St. Louis produce distributor.

In fact, produce brokers and distributors now say supplies and quality of produce in area food stores should improve as prices return to near-normal winter levels.

"At this time, there are ample supplies of produce coming out of southern California and Arizona, and the prices have come down and are reasonable," said Allan Sigel, spokesman for Adolph and Ceresia Produce Co. in north St. Louis.

This week's good news is a drastic change from the somber predictions in mid-November of shortages and skyrocketing prices by late December and early January. At the time, many produce brokers and distributors predicted shortages of lettuce, broccoli and cauliflower because of damage to the crop by the poinsettia whitefly.

There were also predictions of sharp price hikes for produce, such as lettuce, as supplies were outstripped by demand.

The whitefly had already devastated the California winter melon crop in October. By late November, there were hardly any cantaloupes or melons to be found in area food stores. Those that were available were selling as high as $3 apiece, instead of the usual 99 cents.

The case price for iceberg head lettuce jumped nearly $25 in early November, with some forecasts that a 24-head case of head lettuce would go for $45 by mid-January, instead of the normal $7-$9 per case price.

California agriculture officials warned there was no effective insecticides to control the spread of the whitefly and said produce losses, which amounted to $90 million by mid-November, could run as high as $200 million.

But in late November and early December, Mother Nature intervened with unusually cold weather that killed the whiteflies.

"There no longer seems to be any further problem with the whitefly, from what we have been able to find out," said Siegel. "However, since no effective insecticide has been developed to control or eradicate the whitefly, it may come back to cause trouble again later this year."

In the meantime, the demise of the whitefly has brightened prospects of continued supplies of produce for the rest of the winter months.

The elimination of the whitefly and the harvesting of new crops with higher yields caused produce prices to plummet during the past 30 days, Sigel said.

For example, the distributor case price for cauliflower fell $15 dollars, while the case price of broccoli dropped $9-10 in December. "The current prices are very reasonable for this time of the year," he said.

Frank Stinnett, a local produce wholesaler who supplies fresh produce to area schools and businesses, said his wholesale price for a 24-head case of lettuce peaked at $24-$26 a case in early November. He said the market price for the same case of lettuce this week was near $7. "That's just about where it should be," said Stinnett.

A check of area food stores during the past two weeks showed no sharp increase in produce prices or decrease in quality. Last week, some stores were selling lettuce at 49 cents a head, or three heads for $1. Broccoli prices were up slightly, however.

Although the whitefly problem has been temporarily eliminated by last month's cold weather, Sigel said damage remains. "We'll continue to see some damaged produce coming through the pipeline until new crops are harvested," he said.

Siegel said a shipment of broccoli arrived this week in St. Louis with white stalks instead of the usual green stalks. "That's whitefly damage," he said. "They sucked the juices right out of the stalk."

Sigel explained produce, such as lettuce, broccoli and cauliflower, are grown and harvested throughout the year in cycles. As one crop is harvested, another is nearing maturity, while a new crop is being planted.

"Right now, all of the produce for the nation is coming out of Blythe, Calif., and Yuma, Ariz.," he explained. "By mid-March, as the weather begins to warm up, the harvesting cycle will move northward from southern California."

Stinnett said the price of fresh produce is keenly susceptible to drastic weather changes in California, Arizona and Texas.

He said fresh produce is like any other perishable commodity whose price is determined daily by the market forces of supply and demand.