POSHARD FAVORS NAFTA IDEA BUT NOT AS CURRENTLY WRITTEN

U.S. Rep. Glenn Poshard likes the concept of a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but not in its current form.

"We oppose NAFTA as it is now," said Poshard, D-Marion. "The principles in terms of expanding exports and opening new trade opportunities and eliminating tariffs are good and we do support that."

But Poshard does not support the way the trade pact is written.

"We have some questions about it," Poshard said last week. "There's no guarantee of a wage base for Mexican workers who now offer low-wage competition to compete against the U.S. The agreement is also lacking of child labor laws and environmental standards."

Rep. Jerry Costello, D-Belleville, agrees with Poshard, but both U.S. Senators from Illinois are still undecided.

During a recent visit to Southern Illinois, Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun indicated she was leaning in favor of the agreement but has not made a final decision.

Sen. Paul Simon, also a recent visitor to the area, said he was still looking at all the variables. "I want to look at what long-term implications of the agreement might be," he said.

Also looking at the long term is U.S. Rep. Bill Emerson, R-Cape Girardeau, who told a Cape Girardeau Chamber of Commerce meeting recently that he was undecided at this time.

"I believe before Congress adjourns this fall we will come to grips with NAFTA, but we have not gotten there yet," said Emerson in remarks to a Chamber of Commerce First Friday Coffee.

"I have really not decided how to vote," he said. "I have a feeling that a `no' vote may be a vote for the decade, but a `yes' vote may be a vote for the century."

Meanwhile, Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari warned Friday that the North American Free Trade Agreement could be killed if the United States fails to ratify it on time or tries to change it. Salinas told the Washington Post that "neither re-opening negotiation of the treaty nor postponement of its implementation date are viable options at this stage."

The deadline for ratification is Jan. 1.

The agreement has received overwhelming reaction. Three large farm groups -- the Illinois Farm Bureau, Missouri Soybean Association and Missouri Soybean Merchandising Council -- have endorsed the trade pact.

"Farmers are bombarded with information concerning NAFTA," said soybean association president Dennis Fulk, a Platte City, Mo. farmer. "From MSA's perspective we see nothing but a win-win situation for Missouri agriculture.

According to the United States Department of Commerce (USDA), agriculture crops were Missouri's number one export to Mexico last year, totaling about $81 million. The USDA projects U.S. soybean exports to Mexico would increase by almost 20 percent if NAFTA passes.

"That's means another $400-500 million to the soybean industry," said Fulk. "This figure does not take Canada into account."

Business concerns are that NAFTA will cost U.S. jobs.

Poshard and Costello agree. Both believe there will be a net loss of jobs in the U.S. due to the lower labor costs in Mexico.

"The wages, working conditions and environmental conditions in Mexico will not improve," said Costello. "The reason businesses are going there is because of the slave wages being paid to the Mexican workers."

Poshard and Costell want to see some improvements in the plan prior to the approval of NAFTA.

Meanwhile, a political scientist from Southern Illinois University-Carbondale, feels that the struggle over passage of the NAFTA may be more about this country's politics than about its economy.

"The odd thing about NAFTA is that it doesn't cleave neatly along party lines," says John S. Jackson, III. "It doesn't clearly hit Democrats one way and Republicans another, so you have these odd alliances forming pro and con."

What Jackson calls an "extraordinary array of Republican elite" -- including presidents George Bush and Gerald R. Ford -- have gotten behind the Democratic administration on the trade pact. But, a number of influential Democrats, among them House Majority Leader Richard A. Gephardt and Majority Whip David Bonior, are vehemently opposed.

"I think moderate Republicans are likely to support Bill Clinton on this, and liberal Democrats are likely to defeat it in huge numbers," writes Jackson In a column written for SIU-C News Service, "If he doesn't get help from the likes of Bob Dole and from what's left of the Republican middle, Clinton hasn't got a prayer of getting NAFTA through Congress."

"We will see more such blurring of party lines on economic issues as we move further away from the Industrial Age, Jackson predicts. "We have a new economy with a different economic base and our parties don't yet understand it. They're struggling to find their role."

Jackson adds that voters rely on television and other forms of what he calls "shorthand" when they don't know much about an issues.

"They look for cues that make some sense to them, then make up their minds, said Jackson. "Cues could come from TV ads, from a union boss saying NAFTA will cost them jobs, from a farm lobbyist saying soybean growers will benefit from free trade, and from some talk-show host spouting nationalistic slogans.

Regardless of whether this particular trade pact goes through, Jackson expects some sort of North American trade alliance in the future. Canada and Mexico are two of our three biggest trading partners, he says, making necessary some sort of trade policy regarding them.

In conclusion, Jackson says there's a larger context, pointing to such organizations as the European Community and Association of Southeast Asian Nations. He maintains that emerging trade blocs will come to dominate world trade.

"We're not going to be invited to join these others, so if NAFTA doesn't pass, we're on our own," he says.