Political ads may reach billion-dollar mark

DELAND, Fla. -- Jim Lawlor can't remember ever seeing so many political advertisements on television. And he's been around longer than TV itself.

"I think they're going at it hot and heavy. I just don't like to see all that," said the 81-year-old man, who was finishing a workout at an Orange City YMCA, where treadmill users burn calories while watching a bank of ceiling-mounted TVs.

These days, the names of Bush, McBride, and a host of other candidates jam commercial breaks once filled with ads for new cars and lemon-scented dishwashing liquid.

"I think it's a lot overdone," Lawlor, of DeBary, Fla., said. "You shouldn't have to go that far."

But candidates and committees are going further than ever before.

Shattering records

Experts predict that nationwide spending on political TV ads this year could reach $1 billion, shattering previous records, including the estimated $771 million spent during the 2000 presidential election.

If the estimates hold true, this year's political TV revenue could more than double the $498 million spent during 1998, the last midterm election season.

Politicians, political parties and third-party groups are increasingly relying on TV ads, often negative, because they are the "quickest, most effective way" of reaching voters, especially undecided voters who can swing elections, said J.T. Smith, a visiting assistant professor at Rollins College in Winter Park, Fla.

"They are dumping everything now into the TV advertising," Smith said.

This year's spike in TV spending can be traced to other factors, primarily the struggle between Republicans and Democrats in close races that could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate and House, as well as other high-stakes battles, such as Florida's governor's race.

"This is a huge election," said Matthew F. Felling, media director for the Center for Media and Public Affairs, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington. "Sometimes, when you hear an election could go either way, it's merely optimistic talk on the part of the underdog. But in all these national races, this could shift the balance of power."

Experts think candidates and committees are trying to get in as much TV advertising as possible before a new law takes effect after Tuesday's elections, curbing the use of "soft-money" political donations, which help pay for many of the ads.

Florida spending

It's possible Florida's share of the spending spree will exceed the estimated $58 million spent in the state two years ago. Of that, nearly $12.5 million was spent in the metro Orlando market, according to estimates from the Campaign Media Analysis Group, a private firm in Arlington, Va., that tracks political advertisements and spending nationally.

That figure is probably low, according to WESH Channel 2 General Manager Bill Bauman. He said spending in the Orlando market in 2000 was closer to $15 million, and he predicts the region will top that figure by $3 million or more during this season.

"We're looking at probably the largest political market that we have ever seen here," Bauman said.