City leaders say it's a likelihood. More pragmatic state transportation officials say it's a possibility. The U.S. Census Bureau won't even hazard a guess.
But even if the greater Cape Girardeau area makes the bureau's list of new urbanized areas in March -- allowing the creation of a Metropolitan Planning Organization -- such an group may not have the regulatory teeth some hope it will.
Leaders in the cities looking to be included in the designation -- Cape Girardeau, Jackson and Scott City -- have said they believe that an MPO made up of local elected leaders, citizens and transportation officials would be able to say yes or no to any new road, bridge or other transportation projects.
Cape Girardeau Mayor Al Spradling III specifically has pointed to having greater control over the Missouri Department of Transportation, which he feels has been less than accommodating when there has been a disagreement between it and the city.
But that won't be the case, say state transportation officials.
"They do have approval and rejection power over federally funded transportation projects, that is true," said Kent Van Landuyt, a planning liaison with the Missouri Department of Transportation in Jefferson City. "But the Missouri Constitution gives MoDOT final authority on state projects."
Input already
Van Landuyt said that city officials in Southeast Missouri have always had a voice in projects that are done here anyway.
"It's not likely that a state agency would go ahead with a project that a local government doesn't want done," he said. "They have a great deal of input already."
Spradling said Friday that he doesn't think an MPO would regulate the state transportation department.
"But I have to believe they'll listen more closely," Spradling said. "As far as us having input, we have had input and then it was ignored. The MPO gives us more leverage, I would hope."
The point, however, may become moot if the area does not get the urbanized area designation, which is a prerequisite for the governor to allow an MPO to be formed.
U.S. Census Bureau officials said Friday that some of the rules have changed from 10 years ago, when the area missed the designation, some said by a slight margin.
Now, the density requirement has been dropped from 1,000 people per square mile to 500 people per square mile, said Dave Aultman, geographer with census bureau in Washington, D.C.
Minimum of 50,000
But the main requirement is still that urbanized areas have a minimum of 50,000 people. Aultman said that the bureau does not look at boundaries, but instead looks at populous areas, then determines if it meets the population requirement and then looks at the density.
Census figures, released earlier this year, place Jackson's population at 11,947. The census lists Cape Girardeau's population at 35,349, a figure that local officials contend is too low. Scott City's population is 4,591.
While those figures combined is well above 50,000, the census may not look at adding those cities together.
"We don't look at three towns that touch and add up their population," he said.
He also said that urban fringes are no longer a factor and that the urbanized area extends as far away from the area's core as it meets the density population. The area must be contiguous, he said.
"Thre is no distinction between the area and its fringe anymore," Aultman said. "There was in the past, but we've changed that to do away with the confusion."
In fact, Aultman said that there may even be portions of the cities that do not make it into the urbanized area.
"If you have blocks on the fringe of the city that have densities below 500, then those portions may not be included in the delineation," he said.
Aultman said there are exemptions that allows them to "hop" or "jump" over areas where density might cause a problem.
"There might be an industrial area where people don't live or a downtown where there are shops but no residential areas," he said. "In that case, we look at road patterns to see if there is the appropriate density surrounding these areas. We literally look at each block."
$90,000 for planning
MPOs with roughly 50,000 population receive about $90,000 a year from federal dollars, said Steve Duke, a transportation planner in Sikeston who is working with the area on getting prepared for the designation. The area must match that money to the tune of roughly $18,000.
That money is not for transportation projects, but is for planning and paying staff, Duke said. MPOs are required to make long-range transportation plans and implement a transportation improvement program.
Doug Leslie, Cape Girardeau's public works director, is chairman of the MPO steering committee. They are working to get the preliminary work done if the area gets the designation.
Leslie said that he believes that Cape Girardeau and Jackson areas are more likely to get the designation. He said there is some uncertainty about the area between Cape Girardeau and Scott City, which is largely flood plain.
"It's a real nebulous issue," he said.
While area officials are at least talking like their confident, Van Landuyt took a more realistic view.
"From working with the information, we think there is a possibility," he said. "But it's going to be close. It's anybody's guess until the census publishes the list."
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