Pakistan's Musharraf has threats all around

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- In the standoff with nuclear neighbor India over Kashmir, President Gen. Pervez Musharraf risks inflaming conservative religious elements -- including some within the military -- already provoked by his ties to the United States.

Musharraf's room for maneuver has been curtailed by a decline in popular support since his pivotal decision last year to abandon the Afghan Taliban and throw his support to the U.S.-led war against terrorism.

For these reasons, it would be politically risky for the 58-year-old army commander to bow to international pressure to stop movement of Pakistan-based Islamic fighters into the Indian-ruled part of Kashmir without receiving something from India -- such as a troop reduction along the border or an agreement to discuss the situation in Kashmir.

Without concessions from New Delhi, many analysts question whether Musharraf, who was born in India four years before the two countries were partitioned, has the political stature to survive.

"He has to be very careful. He is steering the country from one direction to an altogether different direction," said Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani general.

Masood said a revolt within the military, which Musharraf commands and which is the real arbiter of power in Pakistan, is highly unlikely. But there are "conservative elements" who want to continue support for the Kashmiris, he added.

That the two countries are willing to risk nuclear war reflects the depth of passion aroused by Kashmir, a predominantly Muslim, Himalayan region divided between India and Pakistan but claimed in entirety by both countries.

Though it has few resources other than its stunning beauty, Kashmir has been a battleground for decades. Pakistanis believe it should all be theirs because of its Muslim majority. Indians say the ruler before the 1947 partitioning agreed that Kashmir should join India.

The region was the flashpoint of two wars and, since 1989, the scene of a bloody insurgency waged by Islamic rebels aided by Pakistan.

Hard lines

The Pakistani military traditionally has taken a hard line on India.

During a crisis over Kashmir in 1998, Musharraf and other generals were reportedly angry at Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's efforts to find a diplomatic way out of the standoff. A year later, Musharraf ousted Sharif in a bloodless coup.

Nevertheless, there are signs Musharraf is making good on his promise to stop assistance to Kashmiri insurgents. Former Pakistani intelligence officials, who were closely linked to the radical groups, say that in the last two weeks Musharraf has stopped cross-border incursions.

Hamid Gul, former head of the country's powerful intelligence chief, said "even the Pakistani soldiers have been ordered to stop helping the mujahedeen."

"This will not sit well with them or with the nation," Gul said.

Another retired army general, who didn't want to be identified by name, said Musharraf has already begun to dismantle the insurgents' training camps in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir under pressure from the United States.

All this leaves Musharraf with a difficult sales job.

Masood said Musharraf has to convince Pakistanis he hasn't sold out the Kashmiris, whom many Pakistanis consider freedom fighters. Hence his need for India to agree to negotiations.

However, India has repeatedly refused even to acknowledge there is a "Kashmir dispute," fearing that could open the door to the loss of territory it considers integral national territory.

"He has to bring the people along. He is doing a very difficult balancing act," Masood said. "How he is able to develop a political consensus will be important. This will be his great test."