Outcome of Germany's election still uncertain

BERLIN -- The countdown clock at the Christian Democratic Union's headquarters confidently proclaimed "another 23 days until the change."

The party of conservative challenger Angela Merkel is indeed well ahead of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats.

But Germany's Sept. 18 election is more uncertain than it looks -- because the Christian Democrats and their pro-business allies, the Free Democrats, could together fall short of the 50 percent they would need to be sure of calling the shots.

That raises the question -- what coalition will muster a majority of seats in the lower house to form a government?

The coalition makeup could determine whether Schroeder's attempt to streamline Germany's welfare state and improve ragged economic growth will be continued, intensified, or abandoned. Without more growth, Germans fear their accustomed prosperity, high wages and social benefits will not withstand intensified foreign competition in the era of globalization.

Latest poll

The latest poll from the Infratest dimap institute showed the Christian Democrats at 42 percent and the Free Democrats at 7 percent -- for 49 percent together. They could, however, get less than 50 percent of the popular vote but still secure a majority of seats due to Germany's system of proportional representation.

Schroeder's Social Democrats were at 31 percent; their governing partner, the Greens, had 8 percent; and the Left Party, an alliance of ex-communists and Social Democrat defectors, 9 percent. No margin of error was given.

If Merkel and the Free Democrats come up just short of a majority, the most likely outcome will be a so-called "grand coalition" between Schroeder's Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats, said Oskar Niedermayer, a political scientist at Berlin's Free University.

That happened once before, in 1963, with the Christian Democrats' Ludwig Erhard as chancellor and the Social Democrats' Willy Brandt as vice chancellor and foreign minister.

"For the Social Democrats, they have to ask the question: under which configuration can they do it, and the grand coalition is the most possible," Niedermayer said. "It would mean Merkel as chancellor, because it's unlikely that the Social Democrats will overtake them."

Schroeder, he said, would almost certainly be left out of a job and another party leader would become Merkel's deputy.

Common ground

If Merkel and the Social Democrats are forced into an arranged marriage, there is some common ground.

Both parties are interested in some sort of tax overhaul, though they have disagreed on the details. Merkel has praised Schroeder's reforms, while saying they should go further.

The Christian Democrats oppose Schroeder's decision to phase out nuclear power plants. However, that was not his own plan but a project of his current coalition partner, the Greens.

If that alliance fails, there are yet more possibilities.

German political parties are referred to by their official colors, making speculation over potential coalitions sound like the solution to a Rubik's Cube.

For instance, the easy answer is that Schroeder's Social Democrats and the Greens -- red-green -- will fall to the coalition of Merkel's Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats -- black-yellow.

But with every new poll, pundits pull out their calculators to see what other combinations could muster a majority.

One is the so-called "traffic light:" red-yellow-green, meaning the Social Democrats, Free Democrats and Greens. Such a coalition is only an outside possibility because the party that gets the most votes -- likely the Christian Democrats -- would probably get the first chance at forming a government.

Germany's president can approve a minority government if no coalition can muster 50 percent in parliament in three tries.

Though the environmentalist Greens, with their roots in the 60's protest generation, and the pro-business Free Democrats don't like one another, the allure of power might draw them into an alliance.

Another idea is a "red-red-green" coalition between the Social Democrats, Greens and the newly minted Left Party -- which includes renegade Social Democrats unhappy with what they see as Schroeder's excessively pro-business attempts to cut jobless and social benefits.

Such an alliance would raise questions over the future of Schroeder's "Agenda 2010" reform drive.

Any attempt to form red-red-green would be complicated the personal animosity between Schroeder and Oskar Lafontaine, a former Social Democratic chairman and finance minister who bolted the party to help found the new group.

Yet another possibility is black-yellow-green -- the Christian Democrats and Free Democrats reaching out to the Greens to eke out their majority. Merkel has steadfastly stuck to her call for a "black-yellow" alliance.

Political scientist Niedermayer is betting on the Christian Democrats and Free Democrats making it across the finish line -- if they avoid more bumbling such as a flap over derogatory comments made by Merkel's Bavarian ally, Edmund Stoiber, about voters in east Germany.