NPR's Mara Liasson talks politics at Show Me Center

If Election Day is the Super Bowl in the world of politics, then Mara Liasson's discussion of midterm expectations could be considered the pregame analysis, said KRCU general manager Dan Woods at the Tuesday night event.

He spoke briefly before Liasson's "Let's Talk Politics" presentation at the Show Me Center, part of Southeast Missouri State University's 2014-2015 Speakers Series, preparing the audience for an evening centered around the candidates and the issues at stake in the Nov. 4 election. Liasson is the national political correspondent for National Public Radio and is a FOX News contributor.

The fate of the Senate is often the most discussed issue in the conversation about the upcoming midterm election. Republicans hold a majority in the House of Representatives and are in a position to take control of the Senate, if they can pick up six seats next week.

Liasson predicts Republicans will likely achieve that goal, but said plenty of factors are at play to potentially aid Democrats. Voter turnout, for example, could be the key in some of the closer races.

"There are very few swing voters left in America," she said. "It's all about getting them to the polls. The Democrats have a mighty electoral coalition that helps them get elected in presidential elections, but all that seems to disappear in the midterms."

Single women, minorities and young voters are key groups in the Democratic coalition and lean pretty heavily to the left, when they vote at all, she said.

The Republicans struggle less with this issue in midterms. Their coalition tends to be whiter, older, more rural and married and are more habitual voters, Liasson said.

History also does not favor the Democrats' chances in this election. Liasson said "there isn't a single president in the modern era" whose party has experienced a positive outcome in the midterm occurring in his sixth year of presidency. They lose seats and majority control, if they ever held it at all, she explained.

But Liasson said she doesn't expect to see a big wave for Republicans either. They will likely gain the six seats needed for coveted Senate control, and possibly pick up an extra seat or two, but she expects that will likely be the extent of their winnings.

Some of the races Liasson is following closely are in Georgia, where Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue are battling for an open Senate seat; and in Kansas, where independent candidate Greg Orman has been successfully holding his own against incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. The Georgia race is interesting because the red state's growing Hispanic population could transform it to a purple state in the next few election cycles, she said.

She called Kansas "the single most surprising state this year." It's a deeply red state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1938. While Orman is independent and has tried to make a name for himself as a middle-of-the-road candidate, many expect him to align with the Democratic Party if elected.

Many states have Senate races that are still too close to call -- including Alaska, Arkansas and Iowa -- and Liasson said there could still be some surprises come election night.

"It's still unpredictable," she said.

srinehart@semissourian.com

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