No leader yet to fill power vacuum in postwar Iraq

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- The man who would be king spent his life outside Iraq and his claim to the throne is questionable. Former exiles favored by Washington have little support at home. Shiite clerics favored at home have little support in Washington.

Without any obvious leader for postwar Iraq, U.S. occupiers have promised to appoint an Iraqi consultative panel by July 15, but many worry that America's preoccupation with a worsening security situation may delay self-rule.

Since the fall of Baghdad in April, new political movements have sprung up and others have merged in a scramble to fill a power vacuum left by Saddam Hussein's ouster.

But virtually every name mentioned as a possible future leader -- Ahmed Chalabi, Adnan Pachachi, Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim, Seyyed Muqtada al-Sadr -- infuriates one group or another.

"I don't find anyone qualified for the job," said Abdul Mejid, editor of Baghdad's Azzaman newspaper. "We'd like a ready-made president" like Afghan President Hamid Karzai, "but we have none."

Hijacked politics

Every major Iraqi group -- Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds and former exiles -- is plagued by internal divisions. And with politics in Iraq monopolized for the past 35 years by Saddam's Baath Party, concepts like democracy, pluralism and civil society are new.

U.S. and British occupiers are concerned that politics in postwar Iraq will be hijacked by religious, Kurdish or other parties with their own agenda, and are determined to prevent that from happening, said a senior Western diplomat in Baghdad.

The largest and best-organized Shiite movement in Shiite-majority Iraq is the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution, led by Ayatollah al-Hakim. The group sets off alarms in Washington because of its strong links to Iran.

Hakim and Seyyed Muqtada al-Sadr, the 30-year-old son of the wildly popular Imam Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr, slain by Saddam's agents in 1999, are favorites among Iraqi Shiites and distrusted by U.S. policymakers. That underscores a key pitfall for Americans attempting to build a democratic postwar Iraq: There's no guarantee a democratic choice would be friendly to America.

The two men most mentioned in the West as possible leaders -- Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress and Pachachi, a former Iraqi foreign minister -- are seen by many Iraqis as unfit because they spent the Saddam years in exile.

The one Iraqi with any potential for unifying disparate factions is Sharif Ali bin Hussein, a cousin to Iraq's last king and a pretender to the throne.

The 45-year-old London investment banker was taken from Baghdad as an infant by his parents after his cousin King Faisal II was killed in a 1958 military coup. Since his return June 10, he's won admirers by visiting hospitals and criticizing the United States for dismissing Saddam's army, leaving thousands unemployed.

U.S. plans for Iraq

Yet it's not clear if Sharif Ali could be king even if he wanted to. There are no direct heirs to the Iraqi throne, and Sharif Ali has two cousins -- members of Jordan's royal family -- also mentioned as possible royal contenders.

Fahdawi and other aides say Sharif Ali wants a referendum so that Iraqis can decide if they want a constitutional monarchy.

That idea does not necessarily coincide with U.S. occupiers' plans for postwar Iraq.

The U.S.-led provisional authority instead plans to hand pick a political council, with 20 to 30 members representing different Iraqi factions, by July 15. The council will appoint the heads of ministries and be consulted on decisions taken by the U.S.-led provisional authority.

At a later date, a constitutional council with 200 to 300 members will convene to work out longer-term issues such as what kind of government Iraq should have and when elections should be held.

That process could take two or more years, said Jon Wilks, deputy head of the British mission in Iraq.

"We said to the Iraqis, 'You must decide how long you need,"' Wilks said, adding that several Iraqi groups have asked the provisional authority not to rush the political process and give movements time to organize.

Wilks acknowledged, however, that security concerns have hampered U.S. and British attempts to speak with Iraqis and hear their concerns.

Attacks against U.S. and British occupation forces have sharply increased in recent days, causing some to wonder if the occupation is turning into a guerrilla war. Protecting the lives of U.S. and British soldiers -- 26 of whom were killed this month alone -- is taking precedence over reconstruction and the creation of a new government.

Said Iraqi engineer Falah al-Najafi: "The Iraqi people are very frightened that all efforts will be turned to fighting the resistance."