Missouri unemployment among US lowest, even lower in Cape Girardeau metro

Local economist David Yaskewich, who noted Missouri's historic low in the unemployment rate last fall, does not expect a spike in unemployment when new U.S. jobless figures are released Friday, Feb. 3.

Yaskewich, chairman of Southeast Missouri State University's Accounting, Economics and Finance Department, said the state hit a record low of 2.4% in the jobless figure in September.

"(2.4%) is the lowest number since the data series began in 1948, and we've ticked up a little since then," Yaskewich said, adding December's Show Me State unemployment rate was 2.8% -- one of 13 U.S. states under the 3% level.

Locally

The most recently available county figures for Southeast Missouri are for November.

David Yaskewich, SEMO Accounting, Economics and Finance Department chairman

David Yaskewich, SEMO Accounting, Economics and Finance Department chairman

They show a mixed bag of results -- some higher, some lower -- than the statewide average.

• Cape Girardeau: 2.1%.
• Perry: 1.9%.
• Scott: 2.2%.
• Bollinger: 2.5%.
• Stoddard: 2.7%.
• Butler: 2.7%.
• Wayne: 3.4%.
• Pemiscot: 3.7%.
• Dunklin: 4.1%.

Outlook

"It's important to point out that you'll probably see job vacancies dry up before you see unemployment rise," Yaskewich said. "For job vacancies that get reported, there's roughly 1.7 to 1.8 job openings for every unemployed person."

Yaskewich said it is possible to misread the job market by focusing entirely on the unemployment rate.

"The rate is just one data point in a nearly 40-page report from the [U.S.] Bureau of Labor Statistics," he said.

The economist took note of the state's minimum wage rising to $12 per hour Jan. 1.

"I would put less weight on the new $12 wage because we've had labor shortages. Even without the hourly adjustment upward, companies are struggling to recruit new workers and are voluntarily increasing their wage scale or offering incentives. It's such a tight labor market where there was already upward pressure on wages," Yaskewich said.