MISSISSIPPI FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE SERIOUS

The National Weather Service says the potential for spring flooding on the Mississippi River as far south as Caruthersville is currently rated as minor to moderate.

The advisory was contained in the weather service's latest spring snowmelt flood outlook.

"This indicates a potential for flooding that varies from just over the banks with no property damage to flooding of low areas and secondary roads, which may require evacuation of property to higher ground," explained Jack Burns, hydrologist with the Weather Service at Weldon Spring.

A week ago the Mississippi River crested at Cape Girardeau at just over 35 feet, three feet above flood stage, as a result of snowmelt from last month's snowstorm over central Missouri and Illinois. However serious flooding does not occur in the Cape Girardeau area until the Mississippi reaches 37-38 feet.

Barring any additional substantial precipitation north of Cape Girardeau after March 10, Burns said the Mississippi here is expected to drop to 23.5 feet on Monday, 20.4 feet on March 31, and 22.1 feet by April 7.

The spring snowmelt flood outlook is based on the current snow cover over the upper Mississippi and Illinois river watersheds and the Missouri River watershed between Kansas City and St. Louis. It is also based on the amount of river ice, soil moisture content and current river levels in the watershed areas. The outlook assumes normal temperature and precipitation patterns during the snowmelt period.

"March and early April weather can change the potential for spring snowmelt flooding," Burns said. "The potential for flooding depends on additional snow accumulations, the rate of snowmelt, river ice action, and the intensity and magnitude of spring rains.

"Warm rain on a deep snow cover will increase the likelihood of flooding. Less than normal precipitation and gradual or intermittent freezing and thawing will lessen the chance of flooding."

Burns said at the present time, the heaviest snow cover that exists over Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Iowa contains 1-3 inches of water equivalent. Only a light snow cover exists over northern Indiana, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin and central Iowa.

The 90-day, long-range outlook for the upper Mississippi River watershed area and its tributaries indicates near seasonal temperatures and below normal precipitation through the end of May.

However, Burns cautioned flooding on the Mississippi River can also occur later in the spring - after the snowmelt - when heavy rains occur as a result of stalled weather fronts or outbreaks of severe weather over the Upper Midwest.