Minutes of meeting show Fed pondering December rate hike

WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve officials believed last month the economic conditions needed to trigger the first interest-rate hike in nearly a decade could "well be met" by their next meeting in December.

Minutes of the October discussions released Wednesday revealed Fed officials' view the job market would improve further and inflation would begin to move toward their 2 percent annual target.

They took note of the U.S. economy's resilience through a summer of financial market turbulence and felt that global threats had "diminished."

The Fed has kept its benchmark for short-term rates near zero since late 2008.

In the end, the Fed at its Oct. 27-28 meeting left its key rate unchanged but said further progress could justify a December hike.

Officials in the minutes stressed no decision had been made yet.

When rate increases do begin, they will occur at a gradual pace, officials reiterated in the minutes.

Most economists are forecasting a small quarter-point rate hike in December.

The wording in the October statement marked the first time in seven years of ultra-low rates the Fed had ever suggested it might raise rates at its next meeting.

The minutes showed Fed officials debated whether to insert the "next meeting" phrase into the statement. A couple of officials worried it might be signaling too strongly the possibility of a December rate hike.

Most members said the new wording would underscore they had not made a decision on a rate hike, but "it may well become appropriate" to start raising rates in December if the data show the economy performing as expected.

Fed officials were encouraged by the "solid pace" of consumer spending in the third quarter and generally expected further moderate gains in coming months, according to the minutes.