LOCAL VETERANS EXPECT MORE IRAQI CONFLICT

Local Persian Gulf War veterans aren't surprised that hostilities between the United States and Iraq are heating up again.

But they are concerned about the repercussions that a potential military strike could bring for the United States' standing with the Middle East and other nations.

Terry Crass, a lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve, served as a nurse with the 217th Evac Hospital during the Gulf War.

He said he isn't at all surprised that the United States is threatening to bomb Iraq over Saddam Hussein's refusal to allow U.N. weapons inspectors access.

"I think that the problem was never really dealt with," said Crass, a Cape Girardeau resident and nurse in Southeast Missouri Hospital's neurology unit. "I think a lot of us felt that it would just go away or be eliminated. That didn't happen."

Crass and other Gulf War veterans say American troops did the job they were sent to the Gulf for: getting Iraqi troops out of Kuwait.

But with Saddam still in power, they said, further conflicts are inevitable.

"If they don't take care of business this time, then two or three years later it'll all start up again," said Bryan Sickrey, 23, of Cape Girardeau.

Sickrey served in the Gulf as a jet aircraft mechanic with the Air Force.

Cape Girardeau resident Jimmy Gockel, 40, retired from the Air Force after serving in the Gulf as the security squad leader with an F-117 Stealth fighter unit at King Khalid Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

If Saddam won't let the U.N. inspectors in, Gockel said, the United States is justified in taking military action.

"It would be nice if we could come to a peaceful resolution, but it doesn't look like we're going to," he said.

But Crass said he doesn't think Hussein has provoked military action.

"I don't see an objective right now for this," Crass said.

He and Sickrey also pointed out that the United States hasn't found any supporters among its Arab Middle Eastern allies or the United Nations, for a military strike.

"I'm concerned about that," Crass said. "I feel like if the international community does not support us on that, we are going to lose favor with our Arab allies."

Dr. Mitchel Gerber, a political science professor at Southeast Missouri State University, said the Middle East is a critical and volatile region for the United States because of its oil supply, its strategic position and America's national security concerns.

There is also the question of what a military strike could mean for Saddam's regime, he said. The U.S. can't "literally target" him, he said, and bombing Iraq won't drive him from power.

"He's shown his capability in the past to survive and to rebuild" Iraq's military strength.

Gerber said if the United States takes direct action against Saddam Iraq might not be the only nation up in arms. Driving him from office could create instability throughout the Middle East.

Many of the alliances in the Middle East are based not on nationality but on religion, Gerber said, and Saddam is a popular figure with more conservative Muslim factions.

Any action against him could create fallout in other nations, "so there could be potential problems in other countries such as Jordan or Saudi Arabia," Gerber said.

And while leaders of other Arab nations might like to see Saddam out of power, the potential unrest is a powerful threat, he said.

"Some of those Arab countries are between a rock and a hard place," Gerber said.

Gerber and the Gulf War veterans downplayed any idea that President Clinton is rattling sabers to distract the public from the current sex scandal.

"I think that's too cynical a perspective on the president's decision-making or policy-making," Gerber said.

He also pointed out that the United States and the U.N. have tried other options, including economic sanctions and diplomatic action.

Making a decision -- any decision -- can do wonders for a president's power base with voters, Gerber said. "However it's resolved, whether the U.S. does commit militarily or politically, I think President Clinton's popularity can only be boosted," he said.

President Kennedy's decision to commit to and then back out of the Bay of Pigs invasion was "a disaster" and President Carter's decision to try to rescue American hostages from Iran failed fatally when the rescue helicopter went down.

But Carter's and Kennedy's popularity ratings both went up, Gerber said.