Latest turmoil in Iraqi politics leaves U.S.-backed deals uncertain

BAGHDAD -- Muqtada al-Sadr's decision to withdraw from the Shiite bloc is the most dramatic sign of the transformation in Iraqi politics. Old alliances are fraying, new ones are forming.

That makes any progress on U.S.-sought political deals even less likely until the power shuffling plays itself out. On the bright side, the reshuffling could eventually have a positive effect, setting up firmer coalitions more willing to compromise.

But the delay is likely to add to frustration over the war within the United States, which had hoped that the "government of national unity" would encourage Sunni and Shiite extremists to stop fighting and join the political process.

With politics in flux, however, laws cannot be pushed through after deals with a handful of powerbrokers -- including power-sharing agreements crucial to the long-term stability that will allow American troops to leave.

"I would say that laws will not pass that easily from now on, and those who were counting on a number of seats, these are now just imaginary seats," said Mohammed al-Dayni, a Sunni legislator. "If laws do not serve the Iraqi people, then they will never be approved."

At the core of the problem is a lack of shared vision of Iraq, even among sectarian groups themselves, and the absence of leaders capable of reaching out beyond their narrow constituencies.

Instead, the trend "has been toward greater fragmentation of political and religious authority," wrote Michael Eisenstadt of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The political transformation has been most dramatic within the Shiite bloc nominally loyal to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and the recent moves have cut into his power base -- significant for the United States because President Bush continues to fully support his leadership.

Thirty Shiite parliament members loyal to al-Sadr announced Saturday they would leave the Shiite coalition, the largest bloc in the 275-member parliament.

Unless al-Sadr reverses that decision, al-Maliki can count on the support of only 108 members of parliament -- including 53 from the Kurdish coalition, his partners in what remains of the national unity government. Another Shiite party, Fahdila with 15 seats, left the alliance earlier this year.

That's a dramatic loss from the 140 seats the Shiite alliance alone won in January 2005 in the first election after Saddam Hussein.

On the Sunni side, things are also in turmoil, and the position of the mainstream parties is increasingly uncertain. Tribal sheiks who have abandoned al-Qaida in Iraq and are now working with the Americans are demanding a greater voice in Sunni politics at the expense of the Sunni parties now represented in parliament.

Sunni Arab solidarity took a hit last week when one of the six Sunni Cabinet ministers who had joined a boycott of al-Maliki's government announced he was returning to his post. His party promptly expelled him.

The boycott by the the Accordance Front, the main Sunni bloc, had already strained ties among its three Sunni parties, with some members believing it was a mistake to bolt the government.

Even armed factions -- some of which have links to mainstream parties -- have not escaped the turmoil. Some factions among Sunni insurgent groups such as the Islamic Army in Iraq and the 1920 Revolution Brigades have joined the revolt against al-Qaida and are helping the Americans track down members of the terror movement.

Other factions of the same groups are still fighting the Americans and their Iraqi allies.

Armed groups on the Shiite side are facing the same: Last month, al-Sadr ordered a six-month stand down by his Mahdi Army militia. But some splinter groups from his Shiite militia are still fighting in Baghdad and cities across the Shiite south.

Al-Maliki's supporters have tried to put a positive spin on the latest defections.

"The Sadrist bloc was not supportive of the government in the past months anyway," said Sadiq al-Rikabi, an advisor to al-Maliki.

Despite the withering of his parliament base, it is unlikely that al-Maliki can be toppled in a confidence vote anytime soon. That would require the support of 138 lawmakers -- and no alternative has emerged who could garner enough votes.

More likely, the fluid situation will mean al-Maliki remains weakened but still in office -- and that will make it harder to cobble together enough votes to get any key legislation approved regardless of American pressure.

"My concern is that if we don't get the kind of results that we all are anticipating, in regards to Prime Minister al-Maliki, the patience of the American people will grow thinner and thinner," said Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb.

Key legislation will remain hostage to protracted negotiations in an unwieldy parliament that can barely muster a quorum.

The loss of al-Sadr also makes al-Maliki even more beholden to the Kurds, who are demanding a referendum this year on the future of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The Kurds want Kirkuk incorporated into their three-province self-governing region in the north -- despite opposition from Arabs and Turkomen.

Kurdish politicians also fear the draft oil bill will reduce their influence in managing and profiting from petroleum reserves in their territory. Al-Sadr opposes the oil measure too, believing it opens the door to foreign domination of the country's national wealth.

"In the past laws were being approved following agreements among different blocs," said Izzat al-Shabandar, an opposition lawmaker. "Now the bills will be discussed with more openness in parliament."

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Robert H. Reid is correspondent-at-large for The Associated Press and has reported frequently from Iraq since 2003.