Lack of deep soil moisture could make for bad growing season

Despite recent rains, drought-parched soil in the region has not absorbed enough moisture to prepare it for the growing season, experts say. Area agricultural producers are doing what they can to increase access to water in preparation for another difficult year.

Dr. Michael T. Aide, chairman of the Department of Agriculture at Southeast Missouri State University, said tests conducted several weeks ago of soil six feet under the surface revealed that water has not penetrated as deeply as it needs to.

"We need quite a bit of rain to catch up," Aide said.

This graphic shows the precipitation outlook for May, June and July.

In better conditions, spring rains saturate the soil, recharging it with moisture that it uses during the summer.

"This year, there will be soils, unless the weather really changes, that won't be fully charged to the bottom of their subsoil," Aide said. "That water is usually used by the plants later in June or July and that may not be there, unless it really starts raining."

Local farmers are attempting to improve irrigation systems and increase capacities to use existing water resources in preparation for the season, Aide said. The farmers who fared best during last year's drought conditions were those who were able to irrigate heavily to offset the scarcity of rainfall.

This graphic shows the temperature outlook for May, June and July.

Besides adding water, farmers can use strategies such as changing tilling patterns to improve soil health, Aide said. Turning the soil over less often limits its exposure to oxygen, starving bacteria that feed on helpful organic matter. Increasing the amount of organic matter, or humus, in the soil helps it retain moisture and use water efficiently, he said.

Corn farmers have had good results planting strains of corn that have been designed to be drought-tolerant, Aide said.

A University of Missouri researcher predicted that relief might not come until the end of the summer, based on the movement of La Niña and El Niño weather patterns that bring moisture and cooler weather. Until then, the Midwest likely will be in a state of "neutrality" and have neither very wet nor extremely dry weather, Tony Lupo, MU professor and chair of the Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences, said in a news release last week. Despite the forecast, he said, soil dryness may drive up the mercury.

"Soil moisture influences air temperature," Lupo said. "High soil moisture produces high evaporation, which produces evaporative cooling. Without this cooling, daytime temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average."

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction charts that show possible trends for the spring and summer note that, in many areas, including Southeastern Missouri, there are "equal chances" for average, below-average or above-average precipitation. Temperatures are noted to likely be above average, based in part on the soil conditions.

David Purdy, hydrometeorological technician at the National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky., said weather predictions that are within a 14-day outlook are most accurate.

Forecasting months in advance is less exact, he said, but based on trends, but it has been getting warmer each year for the past 10 years or so and chances are it will be warmer than normal again this year. "Normal," for the purposes of NOAA, is the temperature average over the span from 1980 to 2010.

Should predictions of another hot, dry summer be accurate, consumers may struggle along with farmers, Aide said.

"If the forecast starts predicting drier-than-normal conditions, then, coupled with the fact that we have very low carry-over stocks in the United States, lower yields would then cause a very high rise in corn and soybean prices that would translate into higher prices at the supermarket," he said.

Feed prices also could rise, Aide said. Producers who depend on those commodities, such as beef, poultry, dairy and swine farmers, may not be able to afford to buy as much, resulting in fewer animals produced for the marketplace and higher market costs.

salderman@semissourian.com

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