Joyless Israelis vote for new parliament

JERUSALEM -- It's a miserable time for Israel: Fear of suicide bombings is keenly felt on every corner, the ranks of the destitute are swelling, and in many parts of the world the Jewish state is a pariah once again.

But with the Palestinian uprising now in month 28, it's a time for retrenchment as well -- which is a chief reason why, if the polls are borne out, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will succeed in keeping his job when Israel votes Tuesday.

It won't be straightforward, though. The winner-takes-all system has been dumped for an older one, in which some 15 parties are likely to win seats in Parliament, and the prime minister will be the man who can stitch enough of them together to command a majority.

The nature of that coalition will help determine whether Sharon will try his hand at making peace, or whether Israel and the Palestinians will continue their mutual bloodletting. With Palestinian terror attacks continuing, however, few people are betting on peace.

The profusion of parties vying for the 4.8 million eligible voters ranges from ultranationalists calling for the expulsion of Arabs to environmentalists who want to legalize marijuana. But the race is essentially a contest between Sharon of the Likud party and the Labor Party's Amram Mitzna, a pair of very different ex-generals.

Sharon, often dubbed "the bulldozer," is a veteran of 50 years in the public eye who now says he will eventually agree to some kind of truncated Palestinian state. But he is also an architect of the movement to populate the West Bank and Gaza Strip with Jews, and critics dismiss such promises as electoral manipulation.

And in any case, as Sharon made clear again this past week, he first demands the removal of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat from power.

Mitzna, a trim, bearded intellectual, is new to national politics but a well-known dissenter from as far back as the 1982 Lebanon War, and his message is sharp and clear: Israel's 35-year occupation of the West Bank and Gaza is foolish and wrong, the source of almost all the country's ills, and it should be ended in a hurry on almost any terms -- be it talks with Arafat, or in a unilateral exit.

Many Israelis agree with Mitzna in essence, but are turned off by what they see as defeatism. And Mitzna's willingness to resume negotiations with Arafat plays badly among the many voters who view the Palestinian leader as an irredeemable terrorist.

Amid calamity and confusion, many Israelis are comforted by the very familiarity of the 74-year-old Sharon, who in the twilight of his career has retooled his once polarizing persona into that of competent crisis manager.

Mitzna's even temper may have worked against him. Critics say the 57-year-old Israeli comes across as too distant and cerebral to connect effectively with the resentments felt over more than 700 Israeli deaths and an economic crisis that has brought 11 percent unemployment, a shrinking economy, rising inflation, a flood of bankruptcies and a fifth of the people to poverty.

The economy grew 6 percent in 2000, the last year of real peacemaking, but was stopped cold by the violence that erupted in September of that year. Although there were other factors -- weakened export markets, the dot-com recession -- most consider the security problem the main one, and that works in Likud's favor.

"We need stability," said Humi Posner, a ponytailed art teacher and veejay at a Tel Aviv theater. "I don't believe in changing leadership during a war." Posner is the kind of Israeli -- European-descended, bohemian, secular -- whom many associate with the "peace camp." But he has drawn harsh conclusions from the Palestinians' rejection of far-reaching peace terms just before fighting erupted. "No one has a solution," he said.

It echoes a widespread fatalism only deepened by the fear of an Iraqi missile attack if the United States attacks Saddam Hussein.

Beyond the candidate's style or the issues of war and peace, Labor is undermined by the deep antipathy of two key constituencies: Among Sephardim -- the half of Israel's Jews with roots in the Middle East -- many still hate Labor for their shabby treatment in the 1950s; and among the 1 million Russian immigrants the left is widely associated with communism.

Furthermore, Labor has trouble selling itself as an alternative after having served in Sharon's coalition for its first 20 months, before bolting in November in a dispute over funding for Jewish settlements.

Sharon responded by calling elections about 10 months ahead of schedule.

Disgust with the old leadership led to the choice of Mitzna, a latecomer and relative unknown, for candidate in a primary among Labor's 120,000 members. But in a phone interview this week, Mitzna seemed resigned to likely defeat, saying that Israelis were punishing Labor "for being a partner in the Sharon government." "I hope the Israeli public will wake up and will pick the alternative (of) a historic compromise, a territorial compromise, and separation from the Palestinians," he said. "But if, God forbid, we won't succeed, we will be a fighting opposition." After Labor bolted, Sharon deftly squelched a leadership challenge from another former Likud prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and his party looked likely to outpoll Labor by more than 2-to-1 to take power in a coalition with nationalist and religious parties.

But Likud's lead has been whittled away by scandals, including allegations of vote-buying and underworld involvement in Likud's primary for Knesset candidates and reports of a $1.5 million loan by a South Africa-based businessman to Sharon's sons to help repay improper contributions to a past campaign.

The polls, which have been stable for several weeks, have Likud winning around 30 seats and Labor 20. More important, Likud plus other religious and nationalist parties are seen winning a majority of up to 65 seats.

That's not without complications.

Sharon has made clear he does not want a coalition dependent on far-right parties that will hamper even the tiniest concession to the Palestinians. His popularity with the public -- and acceptance by Washington -- rests on pillars of perceived moderation.

Instead, he has promised to rebuild a "unity government" with Labor, but Mitzna rules that out.

Sharon could turn to the anti-clerical Shinui Party, which seems set to win 15 seats or more and has been traditionally allied with Labor. Its leader, former journalist Yosef "Tommy" Lapid, suggests he may support Sharon, but only in a coalition that excludes the religious parties that are Likud's traditional allies -- a politically risky and difficult prospect for the prime minister.

Less likely but not impossible is a scenario where Labor, Shinui and dovish and Arab parties perform a little better than expected and win a combined 60 seats. That would block a right-wing government but not necessarily enable one of the left -- as Lapid insists on a coalition with both Labor and Likud.

If all sides stick by their promises, the result could be electoral deadlock -- or an unstable government that will be unable to end the violence with the Palestinians and could fall well before the next scheduled election in 2007.