JET STREAM GIVES AREA A BREAK; WAMRTH SHOULD BE AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS

Blame this crazy weather on an undulating jet stream, said National Weather Service meteorologist Joe Pedigo.

"The jet stream controls the path of storm systems," Pedigo said. "They usually form in depressions in the jet stream, and clear, dry weather usually forms in the ridges where it rises to the north.

"So that's what we're in now: We're in a kind of clear and warming pattern due to the way it's laid out."

A curl in the jet stream, a band of fast-moving air at high altitudes, drew the cold air down from the arctic last week that caused the extreme cold.

This week the jet stream has situated into an even flow that is allowing warm air to blow in from the south and west and keeping the arctic air to the north.

"Now we have the jet stream pushing from California into the northern plains and re-curling back into the Carolinas," Pedigo said. "That looks like that's going to be more or less the stable pattern for the next few days, and that will mean sometimes we'll be on the warm side and sometimes we'll be on the cool side."

The weather service has banks of computers set up to try to anticipate movements of the jet stream and its consequences.

"The computers are continuously trying to see what is going to happen," Pedigo said. "The computers do 2 billion bits of data every second trying to analyze past weather patterns and try to look at what happened under this particular situation.

"There are millions of variables."

The warming trend is expected to send temperatures into the upper 50s today and Wednesday. Rain is likely today, tonight and Wednesday, before ending Wednesday morning. Thursday and Friday are expected to be clear and dry with lows in the 20s and highs around 40.

Southeast Missouri Regional Port Authority director Dan Overbey said he hopes some of the ice in the Mississippi River might melt.

"We need to get rid of that," Overbey said. "A lot of times the river will be running pretty low this time of year, and if there's some melt from up north it kind of helps get us by what could be a real low stage in the river.

"Of course, then you start thinking ahead and you hope you don't end up with spring floods again."

The river is expected to rise slightly over the next few days, the weather service said. Sunday's river stage was 11.6 feet.

"That's still fairly low," Overbey said. "That's a concern, so a little bit of water sure wouldn't hurt right now."

The warmer weather could also bring on a wave of winter colds as germs that have been relatively inactive during the cold spell start coming to life, Dr. Thomas Sparkman, a Cape Girardeau family practitioner said.

"When it gets real cold outside the temperature keeps them from reproducing," Sparkman said.

Sparkman said increased social contact during warmer weather could also lead to spreading of germs. There is also a theory that hasn't been verified that the immune system weakens during erratic temperature shifts, he said.