IT'S LOW: RIVER LEVEL CREATING CONCERNS

The Mississippi River from St. Louis to Cape Girardeau is forecast to drop next month to levels not seen since the record low-water conditions in December 1989.

Meanwhile, as the river continues to fall, representatives of the river industry, Coast Guard, and Corps of Engineers are scheduled to meet in St. Louis next week to prepare plans for keeping the river open to commerce.

Most of their attention will focus on potential choke points in the river sharp bends and narrow crossings of the navigational channel between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill.

The National Weather Service said Wednesday that the river at St. Louis was expected to fall from 1.3 feet Wednesday to minus 3.3 feet by Nov. 20.

At Chester, Ill., the Mississippi River was at 3.1 feet Wednesday. It's expected to drop to minus 1.2 feet by Nov. 20.

The river at Cape Girardeau Wednesday was at 8.4 feet. It's forecast to fall to 6.5 feet on Nov. 6;, 5.3 feet, Nov. 13; and 5.0 feet on Nov. 20.

The forecasts are based on there being no substantial rainfall in the Missouri River and upper Mississippi River basins, north and west of St. Louis.

The river at Cape Girardeau fell to 7.0 feet on Sept. 9-10, then rose slightly. The last time it was below 7 feet here was Jan. 20, 1990, when it stood at 4.5 feet. On Dec. 28, 1989, the Mississippi at Cape dropped to 1.29 feet, a record for the date, and the lowest river stage here in decades.

The Coast Guard finally closed the river for a two-week period in late December 1989 and early January 1990 because of low water and severe icing conditions between St. Louis and Cairo.

"Everybody is starting to get a little nervous with the November cutoff coming up," said Claude Strauser, chief of the potomology branch of the Corps of Engineer's St. Louis district office.

Strauser was referring to Wednesday's close of the navigation season on the Missouri River, between Kansas City and St. Louis. The season ended nearly four weeks earlier than usual this year when engineers cut back water releases from the Gavins Point Dam from 30,500 cubic feet per second (cfs) to 9,000 cfs.

The early cutback was prompted by a prolonged drought that has reduced water levels in storage reservoirs along the upper Missouri River to record-low levels over the past several years.

Strauser explained that releases from the reservoirs provide over half of the water needed to keep the Mississippi River between St. Louis and Cairo open during summer and early fall months.

He said full impact of the cutback will be felt in St. Louis around Nov. 10, and at Cape Girardeau around Nov. 12. "Under normal conditions, you can expect about a 3-foot drop in the river stage at St. Louis and Cape Girardeau about a week to 10 days after the cutoff," Strauser said.

The lack of rain this past summer has impacted other water storage reservoirs on the Kaskaskia, Salt, and St. Francis river basins in Missouri and Illinois, Strauser said. "Due to the lack of inflow this summer, all of these reservoirs are now at, or near their normal winter-time draw-down levels, so there will be very little water available for release into the Mississippi later this fall and winter," Strauser said.

The dry weather is already affecting barge tows on the lower Mississippi River, from Cairo to Baton Rouge, La. Because of low-water conditions, an industry-government advisory committee now recommends loaded barges should not exceed a 9-foot draft, and that barge tows be limited to no more than 30 loads.

Last week, the Coast Guard district headquarters at St. Louis advised that river conditions between Cairo and Baton Rouge remain fair at this time, "but are expected to deteriorate rapidly with no rain."

A spokesman for the Coast Guard's Marine Safety Office at Paducah, Ky., said Wednesday that the office has received at least eight reports of barge tows having run aground or hit bottom within the past five days. None of the incidents proved serious.

Lt. Cmdr. Craig Bone of the Marine Safety Office (MSO) said the Mississippi River near Hickman, Ky., was closed for a while over the weekend after a barge tow ran aground while trying to pass the Memphis district's dredge Burgess. The dredge was opening a new channel.

Bone said the MSO has also received grounding reports on the Ohio River at Mounds, Ill., where the channel is becoming constricted by a large sandbar.

The Corps' St. Louis district dredge Potter has been working on the Mississippi River between Cape Girardeau and Cairo since early August, while the civilian-contract dredge America is working in the vicinity of Ste. Genevieve.

The Pathfinder survey boat is en route from Cairo to Cape Girardeau and St. Louis, looking for trouble spots in the river that may need dredging later this fall and winter.

Strauser said unless there is additional rainfall, the situation will not improve. But he said that valuable experience, gained through cooperation of industry and government during the critical low-water periods in 1988 and 1989, will help.

"We've been through all of this before, and we know what to expect," said Strauser. "We're no longer rookies. We're all veterans and we pretty well know what we need to do to keep things moving."

Another plus this year, he said, is the completion of the rock removal projects at Grand Tower, Ill., and Thebes Gap.

But unlike 1989, when the St. Louis district was able to gather a fleet of five dredges to keep the river open between St. Louis and Cairo, Strauser said only two, or at best three dredges will be available to the St. Louis district this year. "We have the Potter and the American, and we may try to bring the Thompson down."

Strauser said if the river continues to fall near the record-low levels of 1989, the weather will be a critical factor. "If we have a mild winter with no ice, that's one thing. But if we have low water and lots of ice, that's another story," he said.

Strauser said that this year there is another important reason to keep the grain shipments moving downstream. He noted the Soviet Union is making huge purchases of grain to feed its people this winter. Much of that grain will be delivered by barge to export elevators between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, La.

"The Soviets are very worried about being able to feed their people this winter," said Strauser.

"A lot of the grain that moves down the river past Cape Girardeau is destined for Russia, and the other former Soviet republics this winter," said Strauser. "You can see how important the Mississippi River between St. Louis and Cairo is to world commerce, and how important it is that it remains open this winter."