Israeli vote centers on separation

JERUSALEM -- Israel's March 28 election has all the makings of high drama: party splits, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's devastating stroke, Islamic militants ruling in the Palestinian territories.

So why has the campaign been such a snoozer?

Mostly it's because Israelis are flocking to Kadima, a new centrist party that wants separation from the Palestinians.

With elections more than two weeks away, things could still change. But so far, opinion polls are nearly static.

Political scientist Michael Keren attributes the stability to a realignment in Israeli politics.

Israelis used to vote left or right, often on the basis of ethnic or religious affiliations, Keren said. Now the fault line divides the electorate into those who want to separate from the Palestinians unilaterally, leftists who favor a negotiated land-for-peace deal and rightists who want to hold on to land Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war.

In withdrawing from Gaza and becoming the first Israeli leader to cede lands claimed by Palestinians for a state, Sharon embedded the idea of "disengagement" in Israeli minds.

"People are looking at things in terms of disengagement," Keren said. "Polls show ... that about 50 percent of those who say they will vote support disengagement, whether they're leftists or rightists."

Ehud Olmert, the man most likely to be Israel's next prime minister, clearly senses the trend, and has been promising to act on it. He said Thursday that he wants to declare Israel's permanent borders by 2010 -- borders that will render the Jewish state "completely separate from the majority of the Palestinian population."

Olmert's candor is widely seen as an attempt to shore up Kadima's poll readings, which lately have shown minor slippage, even though the party is still projected to win 38 of the 120 seats in parliament, with Labor getting about 19 and Likud 17. That would give Olmert first crack at forming a coalition with smaller parties.

The public moved to the center long before Sharon formed Kadima, and that's why the centrist party he formed wasn't rocked by his illness, said Reuven Hazan, a professor of political science at Hebrew University.

The center's allure has grown because the "old left" and the "old right" didn't supply answers to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Hazan said.

"The left's policy of outstretched arm, we'll negotiate, make concessions, sign agreements, work together to fight terror -- you can't sell it," he said.

At the same time, the demographic realities of ruling a large Palestinian population have sunk in, he said. Most Israelis want a Jewish, democratic state, Hazan said, but if it has a large, voteless Arab populace it won't be democratic, and if it gives the Arabs the vote it will cease to be Jewish.

Campaign ads that hit the airwaves Tuesday signaled that the race was in its last stretch, but the difference from past elections is noticeable. Parties that used to count on young volunteers to hand out party flyers are now paying workers to do it.

However, the balance can still be tipped.

Kadima's slippage stems from corruption allegations against senior members, including Olmert.

According to Zemach, the pollster, 10 percent of voters surveyed said they are undecided, and 20 percent of those who have decided said they could still change their minds.

Sociologist Yochanan Peres doesn't foresee significant swings.

"Why is the campaign so quiet? Because the political energy looking for change is best realized in the formation of Kadima, and because of the huge electoral resonance it has created," he said.