Hurdle behind them, Afghans still see many new challenges

KABUL, Afghanistan -- Afghans have thrashed out a new constitution and opened the way for national elections this summer, but an ugly ethnic split laid bare at the convention that drew up the charter and a continuing Taliban insurgency show that a brighter future still rests on a razor's edge.

The constitution, passed Sunday after an exhausting battle over power sharing and minority rights at the three-week conference, is supposed to draw Afghanistan's unruly tribes together in a moderate Islamic republic under a strong central government.

But with the economy a shambles and most of the country still under the sway of warlords and drug barons, President Hamid Karzai and his team acknowledged that the tough part is still ahead.

"The constitution is just the starting point," his spokesman, Jawid Luddin, said Monday. "The real work starts today."

Karzai began immediately to mend fences with the uneasy coalition of warlords and regional leaders who helped the United States drive out the Taliban two years ago.

"Nobody should feel like either winners or losers," he said in a speech minutes after the constitution was ratified. "We proved that we have national unity."

On Monday, several delegates expressed relief at the deal.

"It would have been a disgrace if we hadn't reached agreement after such a lot of talking," said Abdul Fatah, a delegate from Khost province. "What would we have said to our people?"

Karzai and his American backers declared themselves content that the presidential powers he was seeking -- and made a condition for his candidacy -- had emerged essentially intact.

Parliamentary veto

But new clauses suggest parliament could veto policies and appointments.

"They do put a brake on the power of the president," said Francesc Vendrell, the top European Union envoy in Afghanistan. "There are a few articles that could at least lead to an impasse."

Many Afghans worry a weak presidency could send the country back into the ethnic bickering that saw the victorious anti-Soviet mujahedeen groups of the 1980s tumble into a disastrous civil war in the 1990s.

That war has left the country as one of the poorest in the world. Karzai's government is almost completely dependent on outside aid, and even with the billions being spent in Afghan-istan, the government can barely provide its people with basic services.

A national army, which eventually is to number 70,000 troops, still stands at about one-tenth that figure, and progress has been slowed by desertions over low pay.

Analysts see little risk of a repeat of civil war -- the country is too exhausted to fight on, many say. But a bitter feud over minority languages at the convention has exacerbated tensions that could hamper other key aspects of the peace process.

Karzai managed to draw the support of virtually all his ethnic Pashtun kinsmen, the country's traditional rulers, and the group from which the Taliban drew their main support.

That makes him the leading candidate for the presidential election for which no credible rival is in sight -- but perhaps at the price of alienating smaller ethnic groups in the north. The election is scheduled for June.

Vikram Parekh, an analyst in Kabul for the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, said faction leaders in the north could now more reluctant to observe a U.N.-sponsored push to give up their weapons.

The United Nations has disarmed only a fraction of the estimated 100,000 fighters in the country and is trying to help them find jobs as mine-clearers or farmers.

The world body has said disarmament is essential to make sure that intimidation doesn't render the vote meaningless.

Even more foreboding for the elections is the insecurity wracking the south and east, where Taliban insurgents and their allies mount regular attacks on troops, aid workers and government staff.

The government already has raised the possibility that elections might be delayed, perhaps until September, if security is not improved. The U.S. military has announced a push to make the south and east safer, but kidnappings, rebel attacks and bombings continue.

Gunmen threw grenades and opened fire on a U.N. office in the southern city of Kandahar on Monday. Suspected Taliban also kidnapped an Afghan aid worker, the latest in a string of attacks on the aid community.

While diplomats say some delay in the voting may be necessary, they acknowledge it is vital to bring the country to the polls as soon as it can.

"The question should not be whether we postpone," Vendrell said. "We need to do our best to improve security. It would be fatal if the elections were postponed indefinitely."