Holiday jingle

If early sales stay strong and national and local predictions are anywhere near the mark, area retailers can expect a little more jingle in their cash registers this holiday shopping season.

The National Retail Federation has revised its holiday sales forecast recently to a 6 percent increase over last year to $439.53 billion. The federation, the world's largest retail trade association, had predicted a 5 percent increase, but modified it to reflect a recent flurry of healthy economic indicators, including strong October sales, and falling fuel prices.

"Recent consumer spending has surpassed our expectations and we expect this momentum to continue through the holiday season," said NRF president and CEO Tracy Mullin. "Our forecast remains cautious, but we are confident that the holiday sales increase will be better than we originally anticipated."

That will no doubt raise the holiday spirits of retailers. Area stores say the months of November and December are crucial for the bottom line, some saying that more than half of their profit comes from holiday shopping sales.

In fact, at K's Merchandise in Cape Girardeau, store manager Phil Pierce said 60 percent of their profits come from holiday sales.

"So it's very important for us," Pierce said. "For all retailers, the four or five weeks before Christmas are critical."

Pierce said he expects K's to see a 4- to 5-percent increase over last year. He said K's and other retailers are benefiting from earlier cold weather, which puts people in a holiday mood sooner. Also, Christmas is on a Sunday this year, which means there is an extra Saturday for shopping.

"We're going to pick up huge dollars compared to a year ago," he said.

Tim Bryant, the manager of Wal-Mart Supercenter in Cape Girardeau, said the local store gets 10 percent of its annual sales in the month of December.

"It's huge," he said. "Every day, even Tuesday which is typically our slowest day of the week, turns into Saturday. The November or December time frame can make or break a fourth quarter."

Bryant said recent sales have already exceeded his expectations.

Same story at Hobby Lobby in Cape Girardeau, where manager David Vaughn said it's important Christmas sales are strong. At Hobby Lobby, which sells many holiday decorations, their season starts before Thanksgiving, he said.

"And we had the strongest Thanksgiving we've ever had," he said. "Six percent increase? I'm sure we'll do that."

At C.P. McGinty Jewelers in downtown Cape Girardeau, owner Laura McGinty estimates that 35 percent of the store's annual sales come in December. And sales have been great for her, too.

"Our year's been better than it ever has to date," she said. "There's a huge peak in business in December. It's sometimes a little hard to understand for a fresh-faced new business owners. But we all work toward that all year, with the final goal of a great December."

Predictions are interesting to business owners -- and some businesses use them as loose guides for retailers as they go through the holiday season. But Bruce Domazlicky, director of the Center for Economic and Business Research at Southeast Missouri State, said consumers don't pay any attention to them.

"I don't think the consumers pay attention to predictions at all," Domazlicky said. "Consumers are only interested in their own situation. How much they spend will be determined by how much they have."

So it will be shoppers, he said, who will be the deciding factor on whether the predictions hit their holiday mark.

Peggy Brown, who was shopping at Hobby Lobby last week, said she plans to spend a little less because high gas prices have hit her holiday budget.

"Usually, we double up in a carpool to drive to Cape to shop," said Brown, who lives in Ste. Genevieve. "But I had to come today and when you spend that much on gas every day, there's not enough left over."

Others, however, said they plan to spend more.

"It's been a good year," said Michelle Outman of Cape Girardeau. "And my kids are getting older and as they get older, they want more expensive things. So you end up spending more."

Sonia Powell, who lives near Farmington, said she'd also be spending more as her children grow older.

"They want high-end toys now, like electronic games and things like that," she said. "Those things add up."

smoyers@semissourian.com

335-6611, extension 137