Governor's race is no mirror of White House contest

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- A well-known and well-funded Democrat, opposite a field loaded with an array of Republican candidates. The contest to become Missouri's next governor may seem similar to the White House race, but experts say important differences will affect it.

Missouri Attorney General Chris Koster is the only Democrat to have announced plans to seek the state's top office. Four Republicans are in the race, with two more expected to enter. Nationally, 16 major GOP candidates have announced plans to run for president. While former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton drew much of the early attention on the Democratic side, she has other rivals for the nomination.

The lack of a Democratic primary is a key difference in the races.

Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon is barred by term limits from seeking re-election. Koster being alone on the Democratic side could unite the party and spare him competition for campaign dollars. With nearly $4 million, he has more to spend on the race than all the announced and expected GOP candidates combined.

Retired Missouri State University political scientist Kant Patel said unlike Koster, Clinton faces in-party competition, notably from U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley.

Patel said the Republican primary for president could split the GOP into factions. That's possible in Missouri. But Kant and St. Louis University political science professor Ken Warren said primaries can hone candidates for an eventual face-off with a rival from another party -- an opportunity Koster doesn't appear likely to have in this governor's race.

Another difference is a primary means Clinton likely will be pushed to lean more liberal to secure the party nomination, Patel said. The opposite could happen with Koster, who served as a Republican state senator before switching parties and running for attorney general as a Democrat in 2008.

A party switch typically opens the door for blowback for a Democratic candidate for governor, Warren said. But he said that might not be the case in Missouri, which has been favoring Republican presidential candidates and state lawmakers in recent elections.

The four Republicans in the Missouri governor's race are: former state House Speaker and U.S. Attorney Catherine Hanaway, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, state Sen. Bob Dixon and former state Rep. Randy Asbury. Two others -- former Navy SEAL officer Eric Greitens and suburban St. Louis businessman John Brunner -- are expected to announce. State Sen. Mike Parson had been running but announced Saturday he was switching to the lieutenant governor's race.

"There's not any strong frontrunner at all in that race," Warren said of Missouri's GOP field, which he said is "in disarray."

Name recognition may become an issue. Koster's time as attorney general has allowed him to build a record among voters, Warren said.

Only one of Missouri's Republican gubernatorial hopefuls has held statewide office before: Kinder. Warren said Kinder, a Cape Girardeau native, likely is most well-known in Missouri.

But Warren said he's less visible as lieutenant governor, which officially is responsible for acting as president of the senate, taking over if the governor can no longer serve and sitting on a number of boards and commissions.