GOP hopes 2002 vote allows for takeover in House

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- After steadily building their numbers in the House of Representatives over the last two decades, Republicans believe this will be the year they finally take control.

The main battlegrounds this fall will be fought in swing districts in southwest Missouri and the Kansas City and St. Louis suburbs -- areas where demographic shifts, legislative redistricting and term limits have radically changed the political landscape.

In the former Democratic stronghold of Southeast Missouri, where Republicans currently hold nine of 14 House seats, the fight will primarily be a defensive one with both major parties focusing on keeping the districts they already have. However, both parties see opportunities for gains in the region.

Republicans last controlled the House in 1954. During the 2002 legislative session, Democrats held a slender 87-76 majority. After securing a currently Democratic seat in St. Charles County in the August primary, Republicans need a net gain of just five more seats in the Nov. 5 general election to claim an 82-seat majority.

Magic number

And that is the magic number for Republicans, said House Minority Leader Catherine Hanaway of Warson Woods.

"We only need 82 -- 83 or higher would be great," said Hanaway, who hopes to be Missouri's first female House speaker.

If Republicans win the House and hold the Senate, which they took by one vote in 2001, it would produce the first GOP-dominated Missouri legislature since 1948.

Democrats, naturally, consider that an unlikely outcome.

"At the end of the day, not only are Democrats in Missouri going to hold on to the House, we are going to pick up seats," said Mike Kelley, executive director of the Missouri Democratic Party.

Despite the pre-election optimism of both parties, Southeast Missouri State University political science professor Dr. Russell Renka predicted the status quo will hold in both chambers.

"I don't see either party as having a built-in advantage right now," Renka said. "I see it as being very close, as it was in 2000."

Although the widespread corporate scandals that continue to unfold have the potential to hurt Republicans, as the party of business, at the national level, Renka sees little trickle-down effect on statehouse races.

The main wild card, Renka said, is term limits. Approved by voters in 1992 but only taking widespread effect this year, term limits are ousting 73 House incumbents who served in the 2002 session.

Southeast shift

While the state is split fairly evenly between the two major political parties, Renka said there is no question that Southeast Missouri, formerly conservative Dixiecrat territory, is shifting into the GOP column.

Hanaway said the best chance for a GOP pickup in Southeast Missouri is in the 153rd District, which includes parts of Butler and Wayne counties, plus all of Carter, Oregon and Ripley counties.

Term limits are forcing out 18-year veteran state Rep. Don Koller, D-Summersville, and redistricting created new boundaries Republicans believe gives their candidate, pork producer Mike Dethrow of Alton, an advantage. Dentist Larry Jackson of Doniphan is the Democratic nominee.

Though a traditionally Democratic seat covering parts of Butler, Dunklin and Stoddard counties, Hanaway also likes the Republican Party's chances of claiming the 163rd District. Hanaway said a strong GOP candidate, cotton farmer Otto Bean Jr. of Holcomb, has the potential to overcome the district's traditional Democratic loyalties.

"There is a tremendous opportunity in the 163rd," Hanaway said. "Ott Bean is a very well known community leader, farmer and businessman. It is a swing district."

Brent Robinson of Kennett, who works for University of Missouri Outreach and Extension in Dunklin County, is the Democratic hopeful to replace state Rep. Phillip Britt, D-Kennett. Britt is stepping down after two terms.

Kelley said Republican optimism in the 153rd and 163rd districts is misplaced.

"Those are the two most heavily Democratic performing districts in rural Missouri," Kelley said.

Earning Schwab's district

Democrats say their best shot for a Southeast Missouri gain is in the 157th District, currently served by term-limited state Rep. David Schwab, R-Jackson.

A reliable district for Republicans throughout Schwab's 14-year tenure, redistricting solidified its GOP numbers with the addition of most of rural Perry County to its northern Cape Girardeau County base. However, like the Republican's hopes for Bean in the Bootheel, Democrats believe their candidate, Chuck Miller of Oriole, is tailored to the views of the district.

Miller, who is retired from Proctor & Gamble and runs the family's farm and auction business, touts himself as a strongly conservative Democrat.

"We spent a lot of time making sure we have the right candidate for the right district," Kelley said. "I think that is one seat we could definitely pick up."

Hanaway said Republicans have few worries about the district and isn't concerned that Miller, as a retiree, will be able to be a full-time candidate. Cape Girardeau County assistant prosecuting attorney Scott Lipke of Jackson won the GOP nomination by 24 votes in a four-way primary.

"Our candidate is a youthful candidate with tons of energy, a tough prosecutor and someone who put together a very successful campaign in a very hard-fought race where he certainly didn't start out, maybe, as the most well known or the favorite," Hanaway said. "I think if he carries that same formula into the general election, he will be very successful."

mpowers@semissourian.com

(573) 635-4608

BY THE NUMBERS

The campaign for party control of the Missouri House of Representatives, by the numbers:

2002 House: 87 Democrats, 76 Republicans

Seats decided in August primary: 26 Democratic, 13 Republican (GOP secured one currently Democratic seat)

Incumbents with only minor party challengers: Democrats 3, Republicans 2

Incumbents with major party challengers: 17 Democrats, 27 Republicans

Open seats in play with two major party candidates: 40 Democratic, 34 Republican

Open seats in play with one major, one minor party candidate: 0 Democratic, 1 Republican

Seats needed for House majority: 82

SOURCE: Southeast Missourian