FURRY PROGNOSTICATION: CREATURES HELP FORECAST WINTER WEATHER

Alright, so it's not the greatest unanswered question of science, but it still begs asking: Where are all the woolly bears those little, furry prognosticators of winter weather that are usually seen by the hundreds this time of year crossing highways, roads and sidewalks.

In case you're not up on old weather-forecasting lore, woolly bears (in the South they are called woolly worms) are those black and brown caterpillars commonly seen during September and October.

Many believe although the National Weather Service is obviously skeptical that these hairy little insects along with other signs of nature can indeed tell us if the coming winter will be mild or harsh, and if there will be lots of or little snow to shovel.

The woolly worm's ability to forecast winter is supposedly based on the color bands on the caterpillar. If the reddish-brown, yellow and orange band is wide, with narrow black bands at each end, it means winter will start and end cold but will be mild in the middle.

On the other hand, if you find a large number of woolly bears with an all-black band it's suggested you think about spending the winter in Florida or you stock up on heavy winter clothing.

For some unknown reason, so far this fall very few woolly bears have been spotted in the area. Observers have been watching since mid-September for signs of the tiny insects to make this year's survey, but until about two weeks ago not a single woolly bear was seen.

Then, in early October, a few were spotted crossing a gravel road between East Cape Girardeau and Gale, Ill. And last week, a few more (about a handful) of the woolly bears were seen crawling across the road on the Mississippi River levee south of the traffic bridge.

In comparison, at this time last year hundreds had been spotted in September and October.

Apparently their absence this fall may not be a local phenomenon. Rosemary Kilduff, a writer for the Beattyville Enterprise in Lee County, Ky., in the eastern part of the state, says only 119 woolly worms were spotted during this month's 10th annual Lee County Woolly Worm Survey. She said that last year 188 were spotted.

"We had a real problem finding enough woolly worms for our survey this year; they were very hard to find," Kilduff said Monday. "We thought they all went south for the winter."

Kilduff said some people believe a warm, wet summer and an extended warm, dry fall may explain the absence of large numbers of woolly worms until now.

Kilduff said of the 119 woolly bears seen this year in Lee County, over half (62) had all-black bands, indicating a harsh winter in eastern Kentucky and the upper Ohio Valley.

Of the woolly bears seen locally, nearly all had a wide brown band with small black bands at each end. One was all-brown. But the small number of woolly bears actually observed so far is not enough to make a prediction for the coming winter in the Cape Girardeau area.

Dennis Figg, an endangered-species coordinator with the Missouri Department of Conservation, said the woolly bears are actually the larval stage of a common group of moths known as tiger moths. Figg said the woolly bear caterpillars hatch from their eggs and eat and grow in the grass during the summer.

In the fall, the signs of cold weather arrive before the caterpillar is finished growing, so each caterpillar searches for a protected place to sleep during the winter months, waiting until spring when plants are green again and they can finish growing and become a moth.

That's why you normally see hundreds of woolly bears crossing roads and sidewalks, looking for logs on the ground, dry cracks in rocky ledges, firewood piles and any other suitable safe haven from harsh winter temperatures.

While you're looking for the woolly bears, look for the hornets nests in trees. The ancient weather sages said if the nests are high in the tree, snow will lay heavy on the ground.

And, if a split persimmon tree seed has the shape of a spoon, it means we'll be shoveling a lot of snow this winter. If the half-seed is knife-shaped, the winter will be cold and biting; but, if the seed is in the shape of a fork, it will be a loose, mild winter.

For the record, the National Weather Service is predicting normal to above normal temperatures through the end of December from the Mississippi River to the East Coast.