Farmers: Plans for spring plantings could still change

The U. S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday released its 2013 crop planting prediction report, which showed Missouri farmers statewide were planning to plant less corn and cotton and more wheat and sorghum. Farmers in Southeast Missouri said their planting plans could change, depending on their interpretations of the market and weather.

Andy Smelser grows corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton in New Madrid County. He said in recent weeks he made a moderate shift in his plans and decided to convert some of his corn acreage to cotton. Corn prices are projected to come down while cotton seems to be on the rise, he said. Some of his neighbors in the Bootheel have returned some of their corn seed and plan to put in cotton.

"You've got to be able to adjust to the market and weather conditions," Smelser said. "If that price trend reversed in the next two weeks, it would not take me a split moment to switch it back."

Most of Smelser's land is irrigated, so forecasts of possible dry conditions this summer only affected his thinking about the unirrigated areas. After a few seasons in soybeans, it's time to make a rotation. Considering recent drought, he's chosen cotton.

"Cotton needs moisture, too, but it can get along with less," Smelser said. "You tend to have last year's memory fresh on your mind, even though every year is different."

Rick Faulkner has a farm near Miner, Mo., and plans to plant half of it with cotton and split the rest between corn and soybeans, similar to last year. Most of his land is irrigated, as well. He believes Missouri projected plantings of cotton are down -- just 77 percent compared to last year, according to the UDSA report -- because the price of corn and soybeans are high, making cotton less attractive. Many farmers have "booked" their corn crops, meaning they have agreed they would produce a certain amount at a price set a year or two in advance. The prospect is alluring, since prices have been high, but if yields don't meet expectations, farmers have to pay back the difference.

"It is somewhat of a gamble, because you don't know if you are going to make it," Faulkner said.

Growers don't usually forward-sell their entire crop, and instead try to estimate what they can reliably produce based on past production, he said.

Philip Hulshof's farm lies on the Cape Girardeau and Stoddard County line. He's also planning on planting the same amount of corn, beans and wheat as last year. He invests "a substantial amount" in irrigation so he has access to water when he needs it, he said. Hulshof is glad his father was forward-thinking enough to begin equipping the farm with flood irrigation mechanisms in the 1960s and said keeping water sources going during dry conditions is a challenge.

"It's just day in, day out, relentless, keeping the pumps going," Hulshof said. Diesel fuel that runs the pumps is a profit factor, he said.

Smelser said what happens in the fields will depend on variables. Farmers may change their minds according to projected prices. Or if the spring remains cold and wet and continues to delay planting, it eventually will be too late for corn in some areas and those crops likely will be replaced with soybeans The USDA report can't capture those uncertainties but will be used to set prices.

"Accurate or not, it's the figure the trade uses," Smelser said.

Farmers nationwide intend to plant 97.3 million acres of corn this year, the most since 1936, up slightly from last year. Cotton is expected to total 10 million acres, down 19 percent from 2012. Soybean planted areas are estimated at 77.1 million acres, down slightly from last year.

salderman@semissourian.com

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New Madrid, MO

Miner, MOn T