Experts doubt people will head to national parks this summer

WASHINGTON -- A federal study predicts fewer people will trek through the national parks this year, a finding one analyst blamed on the sagging economy, higher unemployment and high gas prices.

Outdoors industry officials pray the projection is wrong but the prosepects are mixed.

"My forecast is down. Nobody likes that," said Butch Street, a National Park Service analyst based in Denver who tracks park usage.

"Visitation to the Park Service is greatly affected by the economy. I can't imagine the economy in the next three months is going to get pretty good."

The park service forecasts a 1.4 percent drop from its 277.3 million visits in 2002.

The national parks already have so many visitors that a big jump in usage would be required to make an impact on Street's percentages.

"Our base number of 288 million takes a lot to be swayed," he said.

And the most-visited parks have famous bottlenecks -- they get jammed when people most want to use them, making it hard to pack in more visitors.

Great Smoky Mountains National Park is an example. In October's leaf season, when the woods in North Carolina and Tennessee are ablaze in gold, red and green, the traffic backup to get into the park can be five hours, Street said.

Ready for a busy season

However, people who make their living on wilderness visitors are talking up the prospects of a good summer.

Less-famous state and regional parks still can show a good time to people who feel the marquee national parks are too busy to bother visiting, outdoors industry officials say.

As they say that, they cross their fingers.

Drought and forest fires kept a lot of people off the land last year, said Frank Hugelmeyer, president of the Outdoor Industry Association in Boulder, Colo.

"Americans did not know public lands were open when they were open," he said. "They would see raging infernos and say, 'I'm going to take my kid to that? No way!"'

If the wilderness gets a break from calamity, this could be a good year for campers and hikers, Hugelmeyer said.