EX-ROAD OFFICIALS SAY 15-YEAR PLAN SOUND; UNDERFUNDING CLAIMS DISPUTED

Two former state transportation department officials don't buy into the financial doom and gloom the Missouri's 15-year highway plan is underfunded.

Wayne Muri, the former head of the Missouri Department of Transportation, said the plan should be cruising financially, and Jim Toft, who retired as assistant chief engineer last April, calculates more than $8 billion in revenue for projects in the plan.

However, the state's Total Transportation Commission and transportation officials have concluded the 15-year plan is underfunded. The Total Transportation Commission estimated a $14 billion shortfall, and deputy chief engineer J.T. Yarnell estimated the shortfall at between $2 billion and $13 billion.

Missouri is on a path to receive an estimated $8.4 billion more in state and federal gas-tax money over the life of the plan than was anticipated originally, Muri said.

Toft said the figure will be at least $5.5 billion to $6 billion, but "$8.4 billion is certainly possible."

The state's gas-tax revenue has grown at about 5 percent a year, and if revenues continue to grow at 4 percent, the tax should generate about $19 billion over the life of the plan, Muri said. That would be about $3 billion more than projected.

The 15-year plan covers road projects over 19 years, through 2010.

With the new federal highway bill, the state expects an increase in funding transportation projects of $1.2 billion over six years, and funding could increase even more when Congress reauthorizes federal highway funding.

The state, Muri said, could end up with $5.4 billion more in federal gas-tax money than the state projected for the plan in 1992.

Muri headed the department when the plan was implemented. The plan outlined a wide range of road and bridge projects, and the state raised the 11-cent gas tax by 6 cents to provide the needed funding.

Yarnell said the shortfall depends on the assumptions that are made, but Muri said the shortfall calculations are wrong.

He said the shortfall projections underestimate the revenue picture and overestimate the cost of highway projects.

Construction costs have remained fairly constant in recent years, said Muri, who directs the Missouri Asphalt Pavement Association.

"From 1980 to 1996, the most you can get out of it is 0.3 percent inflationary cost a year," he said.

Computer-aided design and a process that uses cost-saving suggestions of contractors have helped keep road-project costs down, Muri said.

The plan, he said, is sound as long as the state doesn't continue adding projects to the list. But, Muri said, the state has added $98 million in road projects during the first five years of the plan.

"You can't keep adding to the plan," he said.

But Yarnell said the plan was designed to include road projects that weren't specifically identified up front.

Toft did his own calculations last year, and they showed no shortfall.

Toft said he told his concerns to MoDOT officials, but they turned a deaf ear.

"My gut feeling was they didn't want this information out," said Toft. "It is not a message that is compatible with what the department wanted to do."

He said supporters of a tax increase don't want to hear his message.